The demographic potential of Russia's Northern regions as a factor of the economic development of the Arctic
Автор: Fauzer V.V.
Журнал: Arctic and North @arctic-and-north
Рубрика: Regionology of Arctic and North: management, economy, society, culture
Статья в выпуске: 10, 2013 года.
Бесплатный доступ
The demographic potential of Russia's northern regions on the basis of population dynamics, fertility and mortality is considered; the reasons for the migration of population movement are given; the affect of demographic potential of the northern regions on the economic development of the Arctic is shown.
Demographic potential, migration, the northern regions, the economic development of the Arctic
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/148320369
IDR: 148320369
Текст научной статьи The demographic potential of Russia's Northern regions as a factor of the economic development of the Arctic
Arctic - is the northern region of the earth, including the deep Arctic Basin, shallow marginal seas with islands and continental land adjacent parts of Europe, Asia and North America. Within the Arctic, there are five Arctic states (Russia, Canada, U.S., Norway, Denmark), which have the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean. To the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (Russian Arctic) is about a third of the total area in the Arctic.2
In the principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic, says that the main objective of the economic policy in the Arctic is to create favorable conditions for the life of the population and the development of production, taking into account the long-term development plans for the country's economy. In the immediate task is proposed to rationalize the amount of natural resources and ensure the effective operation of extracting enterprises, especially fuel and energy, mining, industrial and fishery complexes. Improvement of the structure of production in the Arctic should be in accordance with the needs of the economy in general and the environmental conditions of each particular area with state support in the first place, businesses whose activities are related to the provision of public use. Traditional economic activities of the industry should focus on full employment and livelihoods of indigenous peoples. Priority and feasibility mineral development should be based on their quantitative and qualitative characteristics and integrated assessment of economic, social, environmental, and defense factors 3 .
Russian's economic interests in the Arctic is that it is viewed as a source of the resources for the socio-economic development. Thus, the proven gas reserves of the commercial categories there are 80% of all Russian. The Arctic holds 90% of the recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation, including the 70%-in the Barents and Kara Seas. Predicted the presence of hydrocarbons in the deep part of the Arctic Ocean. In the Arctic, concentrated natural gas, apatite, many strategically important base and precious metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, etc.). Now in the Arctic is about 20% of Russia's GDP and 22% of Russia's exports, produces about 90% of nickel and cobalt, 60% copper, 96% platinum, 100% barite and apatite. Thus, the Arctic is able to provide a solution for social and economic development in the XXI century. and largely meet the needs of Russia's hydrocarbon, water, biological resources and other forms of strategic raw 4, p. 20 .
For the development of natural resources in the Arctic needs appropriate demographic and labor potential. Currently in the Arctic population of about 2 million people, including indigenous people3. To maintain this number (or sufficient numbers based on the needs of the econo-my),requires constant external support. We believe that the best suppliers of human resources are adjacent to the northern Arctic regions of Russia. How much they are willing to perform this function - to be discussed below.
Potentials of the population — content and measurement
In the research of the systems with a complex structure fruitfully explore the hidden possibilities inherent in their internal structure of the potential (from the Greek. Pure potentiality, a hidden power). A striking example is the potential energy of the mechanical system, hidden in its spatial structure. This approach turns out to be fruitful in the study of biological, social and economic systems that are complex in structure. Not accidentally, the term "potential" in the different treatments was widespread in models of biological, social and economic sciences. Since the middle of XIX - early XX century. into scientific introduced various "potentials", reflecting different aspects of the demographic system. Despite many works, the concept of potential demography (the capitalized value of W. Farr, the reproductive potential of Fisher, growth potential, P. Vincent, N. Keyfittsa population inertia, vital capacity and employment potential L. Hersh and others) have not been extended to the case time-varying fertility and mortality. The attempts to generalize the reproductive potential (Samuelson, J. Kim, S. Tuldzhapurkar, etc.) were based on a model of a special kind, were not adequate to the classical interpretation of the concept or contained errors. Synthesis of growth potential (population inertia) to the general case has been proposed, and the known bounds for the special case of asymptotically stationary population were wrong in changing the average age of childbearing. Has not been well solved the problem of developing a common approach to the concepts of potential demography, launched a long time. Solving these problems is partly reflected in the thesis of J. Ediev "Theory and Application of demographic potentials." The aim of this work was to develop a theory of demographic potentials, reflecting the contribution of human demographic, economic, environmental, and other processes, with the aftereffects, realized through his descendants, for the dynamic population models of general form and applications to problems in theoretical and applied mathematical demography, closely related with the problems of potential demography 5, p. 4 .
A major factor limiting the application of the above theoretical development was the fact that the approaches developed only in models with a constant mode of reproduction. This calls for further development of population estimates for potentials. Relevance of the work is also due to the large interests of catfish to the development of new methods of demographic analysis and modeling. This interest is particularly high due to the unfavorable demographic situation in the country and especially in the northern regions.
Demographic potentials
If we turn to the special encyclopedic demographic literature 6, 7, 8 , and there we find a "universal" or settled definition of "demographic potential" in these works a definition is simply absent. At the same time in the literature use the categories of the demographic and labor potential. Most local authors give a collective assessment of the demographic and labor potential, not dividing them into two separate definitions. In our view, this is not justified, despite the fact that at the heart of the labor potential is demographic.
The identification of the demographic potential of the human capital or human potential, which, in our opinion, is not quite true. In our opinion, the closest to the definition of the demographic potential approached Wisniewski, Vasin and Zayonchkovskaya. They note that the demographic potential of the country as a first approximation - is the number of its inhabitants. Describing the demographic potential, the authors use the following indicators: population size and reproduction (fertility, mortality), age structure, life expectancy, net migration, population growth projections, the life potential of the population, population aging and pension 10 . Thus, estimating demographic potential of the region, just use the indicators proposed by Vishnevsky, Vasin and Zaionchkovskaia.
In the last decade again showed interest in the study of the category of the "demographic potential." As the result was a substantial contribution to the theoretical position of the demographic potential of the region and the demographic potential of human reproduction. The study of the demographic potential is reflected in the monographic study S.A. Suknevoy. The paper notes that the demographic potential characterizes the total population of the region's ability to reproduce, that is constantly renewed as a result of generations of birth, death and migration. The main components of the demographic potential in a close relationship, are the total population of the region, the existing structure of the population (age and sex, marriage, ethnicity, migration), and particularly its demographic behavior (for a family, having children, health and the preservation of life, migration mobility). Socio-economic conditionality demographic processes have a significant impact on the components of the demographic potential, leading to a change in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population 11, p. 6 . This definition of the demographic potential is characterized not by its components, as noted in the previous definition, and the ability to determine the total population of the region to reproduce.
In the next paper clarifies S.A. Sukneva as demographic potential is realized through taking place in the region demographics, structural and behavioral factors of its formation are indirectly (by affecting the intensity of future demographic processes) character. In other words, the intensity of the demographic processes in the coming period of time (and, therefore, the demographic potential) are determined, in particular, formed to date, the structure of the population and behavioral attitudes.
Analyzing the demographic trends in the region, in addition to birth and death should highlight the irrevocable migration plays an important role in changing the population of the northern regions. Therefore, considering the reproduction of the population, we will assume that the renewal of generations is a result of births, deaths and migrations irrecoverable. In areas with heavy migration exchange, which includes the northern territories of Russia, the role of migration in the formation of people in different periods of time is decisive than natural increase. In addition to direct effects on the population in permanent migration alters the demographic structure of the population. Therefore in permanent migration is seen by us as an important demographic processes affecting reproduction and change the demographic structure of the population of the northern region.
Thus, the demographic potential of reproduction of the region - is inherent in the structure and determined the demographic behavior of the population total reproductive capacity (possible contribution to the reproduction of the population). These capabilities are due to regional demographic processes dependent on the characteristics of the age and sex, marriage and migration of population structure and demographic behavior, and implemented in the area of social and economic policy 12, p. 16 .
Evaluation of the demographic potential of the Northern Regions of Russia
The disintegration of the Union, the change of the role of the state in the development of the northern regions and the Arctic have led to a significant reduction in the population and labor force of the Russian North. The old economic and social mechanisms to attract people to adapt, and eventually moving to place the outcome no longer work. At the same time, Russia's economy is dependent for the foreseeable future will depend on the economic potential of the North, their contribution to total GDP. Consequently, in the northern regions of the country should have sufficient and effective demographic and labor potential to provide the necessary level of economic development of the North to meet the needs of the country in hydrocarbons, gold, diamonds and other strategic resources.
Russian North for many years been an attractive and material terms and conditions of the residence for all citizens of the former USSR. Public appeals, organized sets, union Komsomol construction, distribution of graduates of the educational institutions provide extensive development of the North and acquisition of industrial enterprises by production personnel. The situation changed dramatically in the late 1980's - early 1990's., When almost all the northern territories began migration outflow of the population.
From 1990 to 2011, the population of the North of Russia decreased from 9807 to 7967 thousand people, which is the combined losses of the northern territories were 1 million 840 thousand people. In this case, the European part of the Russian North has 67.6% of the losses on Asian - 32.4%. As a result, the ratio of change in population between the Asian and European parts. If in the early 1980s. the share of the European North of more than 50% of the total popula- tion, by 2011 - 44.7%. Thus, since the mid-1980s. Asian North began to dominate the European part and the absolute number of the population. This trend is likely to continue in the coming decades (Table 1).
It should be noted that in the recent years, the population dynamics of the northern territories have undergone remarkable changes. The current population of the Russian North decreases more slowly than the population of Russia as a whole. If during the period from 1990 to 2000, Russia lost 775 thousand people, over the past 11 years (2000-2011) has 3 million 976 thousand people. In the Russian North for 1990-1999. population decreased by 1 million 298 thousand people, and from 2000 to 2011 - only 542 thousand people. In other words, before the XXI century. Russian North annually lose an average of 130 thousand people a year, and for the past 11 years -a total of 49.3 thousand people, or was losing 2.6 times less. This happened as a result of the increase in population began Asian North and due to reduced rate of decline in the European North. If the whole of 1990-2010 years. with almost equal population of Asia North lost 596 thousand people, and European - 1 million 244 thousand people, over the past 11 years, the population of the North Asia increased by 18 thousand people, and the European North has lost only 560 thou- sand of population.
Table 1
The population of the Northern Regions, territories, which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas, in 1990—2011, thousand of people
Regions |
Years |
||||
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2011* |
|
Russian Federation |
147 665 |
148 460 |
146 890 |
143 474 |
142 914 |
North of Russia |
9 807 |
9 111 |
8 509 |
8 295 |
7 967 |
European North |
4808 |
4 493 |
4 124 |
3 877 |
3 564 |
Karelia Republic |
792 |
771 |
735 |
703 |
644 |
Komi Republic |
1 249 |
1 157 |
1 058 |
996 |
900 |
Arkhangelsk Region |
1 576 |
1 498 |
1 390 |
1 305 |
1 225 |
Murmansk Region |
1 191 |
1 067 |
941 |
873 |
795 |
Asian North |
4 999 |
4 618 |
4 385 |
4 418 |
4 403 |
Republic Saha(Tiva) |
1 111 |
1 037 |
963 |
951 |
958 |
Tiva Republic |
313 |
303 |
306 |
308 |
308 |
Taimirskiy AO |
52 |
43 |
38 |
39 |
34 |
Evenkiyskiy AO |
24 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
Kamchatskiy region |
477 |
422 |
372 |
352 |
321 |
Magadanskaya region |
390 |
267 |
202 |
175 |
157 |
Сахалинская область |
714 |
659 |
569 |
532 |
497 |
Hanti-Mansiiskiy AO-UGRA |
1 267 |
1 293 |
1 360 |
1 469 |
1 537 |
Yamalo-Nenetskiy AO |
489 |
478 |
496 |
523 |
525 |
Chukotskiya AO |
162 |
96 |
61 |
51 |
50 |
The European North of the biggest losses in the population suffered Murmansk region -
396 people (33.2% of the population in 1990). Followed by the Republic of Komi - 349 thousand (27.9%), Arkhangelsk region - 351 people (22.3%), the Republic of Karelia - 148 thousand (18.7%).
On the Asian north of 10 subjects lost eight people, and two of the region had an absolute increase. The leader in population decline is Chukotka - 112 thousand (69.1% of the 1990). If you continue this pace of population decline, the Chukotka in 7-10 years there will be only in the memory of people.
Rapid decline of concern Magadan population-233 million people(59.7%), the Sakhalin Region-217 people(30.4%), Kamchatka -156 thousand (32.7%). In the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the loss amounted to 13.8% of the population in 1990, but they are absolutely 153 thousand people. In addition to Chukotka in the Asian north are another four autonomous districts. In two of them there is a decline in population in the Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) - for 18 million people (34.6%) and Evenki - 8 million people (33.3%), while two others - the growth of the population: Khanty-Mansiysk (Yugra) - 270 thousand (121.3%) and the Yamal-Nenets - 36 thousand (107.4%). In the Republic of Tuva observed a small decline in the population of 5 million people (1.6%).
The rate of the growth/decline in the population of all subjects of the Russian North, thatcan be grouped into six groups. In 1986-1990. North of 14 subjects, only one - the Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Autonomous Area - had a decline in the population - 5.6%. Population growth ranged from 1.6% in the Republic of Komi and the Magadan region to 24.7% in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. In 1991-1995. only in two subjects was minimal population growth, in the Republic of Tuva - 0.2% and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area - 1.8%. In 12 subjects observed population decline of 0.3% in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District to 37.5% in the Magadan region and 46.6% in Chukotka (Table 2).
In 1996-2000 for three subjects had positive growth, the Republic of Tuva and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous added the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District - 2.3%. Decline in the population ranged from 4.5% in the Republic of Karelia to 31.9% in Chukotka, Magadan was losing less of the population - 19.3%. In 2001-2005 positivd trend was recorded in the Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Autonomous Area - 1.9%. In Chukotka and Magadan region decreased loss of population: 12.2 and 11.5%, respectively. In the next five years (2006-2010) Taimyr Autonomous again began to lose population - 11.7% of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, which has 10 years of population growth, also had a decline in the population - 1.1%, and the Republic of Tuva, which has growth -decrease (0.1%). In areas where there was a marked decline in the population, the size of the losses ranged from 0.1% in the Republic of Tuva to 8.8% in the Magadan region and 11.7% in the Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Autonomous District.
In population dynamics for 1990-2010 years. and a decrease in the urban and rural population. According to the Russian North, as in Russia as a whole, the urban population has decreased less than rural (18.2 and 20.9%). The same dynamics in the European and North Asia (Table 2).
Table 2
The number of the Northern Subjects, territories, which are fully refer to the Far North and in its resettlement in 1990—2011, thousands of people
Years
Resettlement
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2011* |
|
Russian Federation |
147 665 |
148 460 |
146 890 |
143 474 |
142 914 |
city |
108 736 |
108 322 |
107 419 |
104 719 |
105 425 |
village |
38 929 |
40 138 |
39 471 |
38 755 |
37 489 |
North of Russia |
9 807 |
9 111 |
8 509 |
8 295 |
7 967 |
city |
7 759 |
7 169 |
6 719 |
6 530 |
6 347 |
village |
2 048 |
1 942 |
1 790 |
1 765 |
1 620 |
European North |
4 808 |
4 493 |
4 124 |
3 877 |
3 564 |
city |
3 840 |
3 533 |
3 251 |
3 056 |
2 862 |
village |
968 |
960 |
873 |
821 |
702 |
Asian North |
4 999 |
4 618 |
4 385 |
4 418 |
4 403 |
city |
3 919 |
3 636 |
3 468 |
3 474 |
3 485 |
village |
1 080 |
982 |
917 |
944 |
918 |
If the decrease in urban areas due to the social and economic factors, the decline of the ru- ral population-based on objective reasons, other things being equal. First, in most of the northern regions the natural conditions are not conducive to the development of agricultural production. Second, the destruction of the traditional (nomadic and commercial) way of life of indigenous peoples of the North, its translation into the life in the townships reduced the rural population. Third and finally, during the XX century arrived people usually join the ranks of the townspeople.
The population of the North of Russia was originally formed as a town. According to Rosstat, on January 1, 2011 with the preliminary results of the 2010 Census, the proportion of the urban population in the Far North and areas equivalent to them, was 79.7%. A total of 119 cities in the North of Russia (53 - in the European North and 66 - at the Asian), 187 towns (72 - in the European North and 115 - for Asian). In Russia, the share of the urban population accounts for 73.8%. However, despite the high proportion of the urban population, the average population size of urban settlements in the north is low and amounts to 20.7 thousand people against 44.1 thousand people in Russia. It should also be noted that more than 20 years (Census 1989), the average population size of settlements in the Russian North was smaller and was 16.6 thousand people against 33.4 thousand people in Russia. Small population size of urban settlements of the North due, first, to the very small size of the population, and secondly, with a predominantly mining nature of the economy of the North, which causes the dispersion of the population employed in these industries, in extreme close to the place of fishing. And the majority of extracted minerals is usually a non-renewable, which also affects the nature of the settlement and resettlement of the population in the North.
Demographic development of the northern regions of organically linked with the processes occurring in Russia as a whole. This is the case of rising fertility, mortality and gains in life expectancy from 2006 to the present. Flowing in the general trends in the European and North Asian population dynamics has the specificity and difference. The most important and the main difference is that in the whole Asian North births exceeds the number of deaths (Table3).
Table 3
The number of Birth, the death, and natural increase of the population of the Northern subjects, territories, which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas, in 1995—2010, thousands of people
Regions |
Year |
Number of Birth |
Number of Death |
Natural increase |
1995 |
96 047 |
109 767 |
–13 720 |
|
North of Russia |
2000 |
87 835 |
99 867 |
–12 032 |
2005 |
100 429 |
106 157 |
–5 728 |
|
2010 |
115 296 |
90 849 |
24 447 |
|
1995 |
39 705 |
62 178 |
–22 473 |
|
European North |
2000 |
36 450 |
59 022 |
–22 572 |
2005 |
40 341 |
61 422 |
–21 081 |
|
2010 |
44 226 |
49 758 |
–5 532 |
|
1995 |
56 342 |
47 589 |
8 753 |
|
Asian North |
2000 |
51 385 |
40 845 |
10 540 |
2005 |
60 088 |
44 735 |
15 353 |
|
2010 |
71 070 |
41 091 |
29 979 |
Positive natural increase of the Asian North provide: Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Tuva, autonomous regions Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets), Khanty-Mansiysk - Yugra, Chukchi, Evenk and Yamal-Nenets (2010). Should also be noted that over the past 10 years there has been a positive growth trend in fertility. This applies to both increase the number of births and the crude birth rates. With regard to mortality, it is since 2006 tends to decrease.
It is known that all the northern territories (with the exception of the Khanty-Mansi and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District), life expectancy (SPM) for both men and women is lower than the Russian average. However, the potential for growth in the Russian North ALS is huge even compared to that calculated by other territories of Russia, to say nothing of a similar nature-climatic regions of the U.S. (78 years for both sexes in 2011) and Canada (81 years for both sexes, 2011). Compared with the average performance, potential for increasing average life expectancy in the northern territories of the Russian Federation up to 9 years for males and 10 years for women. Compared to the maximum levels of SPM reached at some Russian territories, reserves increased life expectancy of the population in the North can be assessed in more than 21 years for men and more than 17 years for women. In support, I will present some examples. Thus, the aver- age life expectancy for men is 53.75 years, Chukotka, and for men of Tuva - 54.39 years (occupying the last and next to last place in the Russian Federation). Worse results in women Chukotka -64.62 years, and the Republic of Tuva - 65.98 years (2009). For comparison, the average life expectancy in Sweden in men is 80.0 years and 84.0 years for women (2011). As you can see, this is a gap in the whole historical epoch, which means a completely new quality of life. Levels of life, typical now for the population of the northern territories of Russia, match those of the least devel- oped countries.
Table5
The growth of the population of the Northern Subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas, on the components of the changes of the population in
1991—2010 ., thousands of people
Regions |
Years |
|||
1991—1995 |
1996—2000 |
|||
Total |
Total |
|||
growth |
Natural |
Mechanical growth |
Natural Mechanical |
European North |
–379 853 |
–51 645 |
–328 208 |
–345 550 |
–86 151 |
–259 399 |
Republic Karelia |
–28 099 |
–18 643 |
–9 456 |
–34 547 |
–23 977 |
–10 570 |
Republic Komi |
–107 235 |
–2 297 |
–104 938 |
–89 770 |
–11 643 |
–78 127 |
Arkhangelsk region |
–92 896 |
–26 074 |
–66 822 |
–106 946 |
–41 473 |
–65 473 |
Murmansk region |
–151 623 |
–4 631 |
–146 992 |
–114 287 |
–9 058 |
–105 229 |
Asian North |
–464 801 |
109 816 |
–574 617 |
–159 749 |
62 602 |
–222 351 |
Republic Sahaа (Yakutia) |
–98 663 |
40 393 |
–139 056 |
–62 842 |
21 611 |
–84 453 |
Republic Tiva |
583 |
14 739 |
–14 156 |
687 |
5 638 |
–4 951 |
Taimirskiy (Dolgano- Nenetskiy)AO |
–8 627 |
1 017 |
–9 644 |
–3 887 |
378 |
–4 265 |
Evenskiy AO |
–4 256 |
520 |
–4 776 |
–2 022 |
205 |
–2 227 |
Kamchatskiy region |
–72 148 |
1 523 |
–73 671 |
–39 993 |
–1 624 |
–38 369 |
Magadanskiy region |
–144 310 |
916 |
–145 226 |
–46 270 |
–1 101 |
–45 169 |
Sakhalinskiy region |
–85 394 |
–7 582 |
–77 812 |
–69 890 |
–11 410 |
–58 480 |
Hanti-Mansiiskiy-Ugra |
23 146 |
36 583 |
–13 437 |
80 164 |
30 945 |
49 219 |
Yamalo-Nenetskiy АО |
–1 527 |
18 952 |
–20 479 |
11 221 |
17 120 |
–5 899 |
Chykotskiy AO |
–73 605 |
2 755 |
–76 360 |
–26 917 |
840 |
–27 757 |
2001-2005 |
2006-2010 |
|||||
European North |
–225 159 |
–110 443 |
–114 716 |
–274 525 |
–46 013 |
–228 512 |
Republic Karelia |
–31 292 |
–30 272 |
–1 020 |
–53 282 |
–17 292 |
–35 990 |
Republic Komi |
–57 851 |
–19 899 |
–37 952 |
–85 361 |
–4 464 |
–80 897 |
Arkhangelsk region |
–77 748 |
–44 761 |
–32 987 |
–66 060 |
–18 330 |
–47 730 |
Murmansk region |
–58 268 |
–15 511 |
–42 757 |
–69 822 |
–5 927 |
–63 895 |
Asian North |
41 978 |
77 736 |
–35 758 |
–17 683 |
130 436 |
–148 119 |
Republic Sahaа (Yakutia) |
–7 543 |
21 194 |
–28 737 |
8 086 |
29 665 |
–21 579 |
Republic Tiva |
2 762 |
7 311 |
–4 549 |
–331 |
19 649 |
–19 980 |
Taimirskiy (Dolgano- Nenetskiy)AO |
738 |
1 045 |
–307 |
–4 557 |
1 151 |
–5 708 |
Evenskiy AO |
–734 |
198 |
-932 |
–1 014 |
312 |
–1 326 |
Kamchatskiy region |
–17 160 |
–2 482 |
–14 678 |
–27 896 |
–95 |
–27 801 |
Magadanskiy region |
–22 376 |
–1 774 |
–20 602 |
–15 075 |
–1 728 |
–13 347 |
Sakhalinskiy region |
–33 814 |
–14 199 |
–19 615 |
–29 570 |
–6 998 |
–22 572 |
Hanti-Mansiiskiy-Ugra |
94 729 |
46 464 |
48 265 |
58 686 |
63 440 |
–4 754 |
Yamalo-Nenetskiy АО |
32 384 |
19 440 |
12 944 |
–5 836 |
24 414 |
–30 250 |
Chykotskiy AO |
–7 008 |
539 |
–7 547 |
–176 |
626 |
–802 |
In 1991-1995. overall positive growth had only the Khanty-Mansiiskiy Autonomous Area -23 thousand people and the Republic of Tuva - 0.6 thousand people. The European North of all subjects had negative natural and mechanical growth. On the Asian Se-belief was only natural decline in the Sakhalin area - 7582 Human and mechanical - everywhere.
In 1996-2000. had an overall positive growth only Khanty-Mansiysk (80 164 people), the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area (11 221 people) and the Republic of Tuva (687 people), and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region had positive natural and mechanical growth and Yamal-Nenets and Tuva Republic - only the natural increase. In 2001-2005 positive population growth Asian North provided Tyva - 2 762 people, Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Autonomous Area - 738, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area - 94 729 persons and the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area - 32 384 people. The first two areas have had only positive natural increase, and the second - both increase (Table 6).
In 2006-2010 -the demographic situation in the European North still remained troubled, and all areas had natural migration loss of the population. In general grouping of territories according to the influence of natural movement and migration on population change in 1991-2010.
Due to the nature of formation of population of the northern territories are developed than that of the overall age structure of the population. In the North, a higher proportion of children and people of working age and the lower the percentage of older people. However, this advantage is gradually reduced to zero (Table 6).
Table 6
The total amount of the age of the groups in the total number of the population in the North subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas, according to the census in 1989, 2002 and 2010 years., %
Years |
Population in the age |
Russian Federation |
North of Russia |
European North |
Asian North |
Earlier, than work age |
24,5 |
29,3 |
27,0 |
31,5 |
|
1989 |
Work age |
57,0 |
61,9 |
60,6 |
63,1 |
Older, than work age |
18,5 |
8,8 |
12,4 |
5,4 |
|
Earlier, than work age |
18,2 |
21,3 |
18,7 |
23,5 |
|
2002 |
Work age |
61,3 |
66,2 |
64,9 |
67,5 |
Older, than work age |
20,5 |
12,5 |
16,4 |
9,0 |
|
Earlier, than work age |
16,2 |
19,2 |
16,7 |
21,2 |
|
2010* |
Work age |
61,6 |
64,9 |
63,2 |
66,4 |
Older, than work age |
22,2 |
15,9 |
20,1 |
12,4 |
Objective and subjective factors of the life of the population of the northern regions create difficulties in their adaptation, cause conditions to maintain high migration turnover and low survival rate. The high mobility of the population migration supports the existence of this relatively young age structure. If Russia's average proportion of working age in 2010 was 22.2%, according to Census 2010, in the Far North - only 15.9%.
For the average of the hidden areas of the significant difference, the settlement and the development of which took place in different historical periods. In a relatively populated areas of the North, which gradually formed a stable population in terms of migration, there is a tendency to approach the Russian age proportions. Thus, in the Arkhangelsk region and Karelia aging populations exceed 20%. Higher proportion of older people than the average in the Far North, in such subjects as: Magadan, Murmansk and Sakhalin Oblast Kamchatka Krai and the Republic of Komi. The proportion of people of retirement age ranges are from 16.7 to 19.6%.
Among the youngest Asian regions are the North:The Yamal Nenets(7.8%), chykchi(10.3%), Taimyr(Dolgan-Nents) (10.4%), Khanty-Mansiysk(10.6%) of the republic of Tuva (9.8%). In these regions, the age structure of the population, until recently, the most depended on migration, which maintain a constant growth in the number and proportion of young age cohort. In recent years, along with a negative natural increase, its contribution to the decline in population and migration brings. However, the structure of migration flows still contributes to the North a younger age structure. Thus, among the arrivals from 2005 to 2010 went reducing the share of older persons and the share of young people. In the structure of the retired decreased the proportion of young age, while increasing the proportion of seniors. The structure of migration increase (decrease) by age also shows a positive impact on the age structure of the population (Table 7).
Despite the positive migration in northern regions have the aging of the population (increasing the proportion of older persons) and, as a consequence, the growth of the middle ages. Here are some examples of the most typical of the Northern Territory. During the period of 19792010 years. significantly increased the average age of the population: in Yakutia - from 27.2 to 33.0 years, in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District (Yugra) - from 26.4 to 33.7 years, and in the Republic of Komi - from 29.2 to 37.2 years. It should be noted that keeping these negative effects can create a number of problems for the innovative development of the economy of the North.
Table 7
2005 2010 Migrants in the age ЬО ® ro re ”
* Ji £ * ° ° = 5 5 5 5 5 5 ф ф Ф m 2 == 2 го о ro |
|
Russian Federation |
Arrived 13,8 73,8 12,4 13,5 74,9 11,6 |
North of Russia European North Asian North |
14,5 78,0 7,5 15,4 77,2 7,4 12,5 78,7 8,8 14,6 75,9 9,5 15,7 77,6 6,7 15,7 77,9 6,4 Leavers |
Russian Federation North of Russia European North Asian North |
13,8 74,2 12,0 13,8 74,4 11,8 13,5 76,3 10,2 12,8 74,9 12,3 12,3 77,2 10,5 12,2 75,0 12,8 14,3 75,7 10,0 13,2 74,8 12,0 The total migration gain (loss) |
Russian Federation |
12,7 66,7 20,6 10,0 81,0 9,0 |
North of Russia |
–9,0 |
–68,6 |
–22,4 |
–3,6 |
–66,5 |
–29,9 |
European North |
–11,7 |
–72,3 |
–16,0 |
–7,5 |
–73,2 |
–19,3 |
Asian North |
–6,0 |
–64,7 |
–29,3 |
2,2 |
–56,7 |
–45,5 |
In the northern regions of the Russian level much higher proportion of the working population. It is here 64.9 vs. 61.6% for Russia as a whole (Census 2010). The maximum proportion of the working population in the parts of Asia and the North (66.4%), where the most difficult working and living conditions. Some of the areas where the proportion of the labor force is above average is the Magadan Region and the Khanty-Mansiysk, Chukotka and the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. From the Figure 8 shows that in the period from 1989 to 2010 in the population of the northern territories of children decreased from 29.3 to 19.2%, or 34.5%. According to Russia, the proportion of children decreased from 24.5 to 16.2%, or 34.3%. It should also be noted that in 2010 the proportion of the children in the European North was up 4.5 percentage points (pp) lower than in the Asian north. Can cause some of the data and for a longer period of time. For example, from 1979 to 2010 the proportion of the children in Yakutia decreased from 31.8 to 23.3%, in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District (Yugra) - from 29.1 to 20.3%, in the Komi Republic -from 26.9 to 17.7%.
Better idea of reducing the proportion of young people (people under 30) can be obtained from Table. 8.
Table 8
The age structure of the population before the age of 30 in the Northern subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas,, in 1990—2010, in % from the total sum of the population
Years |
Regions |
The number of the peole in the age 0—29 years |
In the age, years |
|||||
0—4 |
5—9 |
10—14 |
15—19 |
20—24 |
25—29 |
|||
Russian Federation |
44,6 |
7,9 |
7,9 |
7,2 |
6,9 |
6,5 |
8,2 |
|
1990 |
North of Russia |
51,0 |
9,5 |
9,6 |
8,2 |
6,7 |
6,8 |
10,2 |
European North |
48,5 |
8,5 |
8,8 |
8,0 |
6,9 |
6,9 |
9,4 |
|
Asian North |
53,4 |
10,4 |
10,4 |
8,3 |
6,6 |
6,7 |
11,0 |
|
Russian Federation |
42,2 |
5,6 |
8,0 |
8,0 |
7,3 |
6,9 |
6,4 |
|
1995 |
North of Russia |
47,3 |
6,2 |
9,3 |
9,3 |
8,3 |
7,2 |
7,0 |
European North |
44,7 |
5,4 |
8,6 |
8,7 |
8,1 |
7,1 |
6,8 |
|
Asian North |
50,0 |
7,0 |
10,1 |
9,9 |
8,5 |
7,3 |
7,2 |
|
Russian Federation |
41,1 |
4,4 |
5,7 |
8,3 |
8,3 |
7,4 |
7,0 |
|
2000 |
North of Russia |
46,1 |
5,2 |
6,6 |
9,4 |
8,8 |
8,3 |
7,8 |
European North |
43,1 |
4,4 |
5,7 |
8,8 |
8,7 |
8,1 |
7,4 |
|
Asian North |
48,9 |
6,0 |
7,4 |
10,0 |
8,8 |
8,5 |
8,2 |
|
Russian Federation |
38,2 |
5,6 |
4,8 |
4,6 |
6,0 |
8,6 |
8,6 |
|
2010 |
North of Russia |
42,0 |
6,5 |
5,8 |
5,4 |
6,7 |
9,1 |
8,5 |
European North |
39,5 |
5,6 |
5,2 |
4,7 |
6,2 |
9,1 |
8,7 |
|
Asian North |
44,0 |
7,2 |
6,3 |
5,9 |
7,1 |
9,1 |
8,4 |
From Table. 8 shows that from 1990 to 2010, the share of the population aged under 30
years has decreased in the country as a whole by 6.4 pp, while the North of Russia - by 9.0 pp, that is, the North lost a young population more rapidly . You can also add that there are different dynamics in young ages. For example, in the whole country from 1990 to 2010. The proportion of the population aged 0 to 19 years and increased the age of 20-29, in Northern Russia decline was seen between the ages of 0 and 19 years, an increase in - from 20 to 24, and again decrease in the proportion of people over 25 years . In the North, decreased the proportion of people born in the years of the adoption of the well-known decision of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the USSR Council of 22 January 1981 "On measures to increase state aid to families with children." It just left the north.
Understanding the migration of the population allow installation regularly conducted surveys. In recent years, Russian Statistics publishes information about the circumstances of the change of the residence. Knowing the causes of the arrival-departure allows you to control the survival and the adaptation of the newcomers. The analysis will start with the reasons why people come to the North to live and work. Among a set of proposed causes of migrants coming to the first place they put the reasons for the "personal, family character" - 48.9%, one in four said the reason "for the work" - 26.5%, in third place - "a return to their former place of residence "- 11.8% and the fourth -" in connection with his studies "- 6.1%. The reasons for coming to the North Asian coincide with the rank of general, the reasons for coming to the North of Russia, which remains unchanged over time. European North has a fluctuating rank the importance of reasons, which in 2009 also corresponded to the overall picture. In second place is the reason "for the work" -15.3%, in third place - "in connection with his studies" - 12.9%, the fourth - "return to their former place of residence" - 12.0% (Table 9).
Table9 Distribution of the migrants aged 14 and over on the circumstances caused the need for a change of the residence, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas in 2005 and 2010 %
Migrants on arrival
The residence of the changes of the residence permit |
2005 |
2010 |
||||||
ГО Ф "O £ = = = ГО V 0C |
ГО V 00 о £ о z |
-С о Z с го ф Q. О ш |
£ О Z с го V < |
го ф ■ О го ос |
го ос о Z |
о Z с го ф Q. О ш |
£ О Z с го V < |
|
All the reasons of the arrival |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
100,0 |
— education |
8,8 |
9,8 |
15,5 |
6,2 |
8,0 |
6,1 |
12,9 |
2,7 |
— work |
10,4 |
23,0 |
13,6 |
28,8 |
10,3 |
26,5 |
15,3 |
32,2 |
— coming back to the old residence permit |
15,4 |
17,8 |
20,3 |
16,3 |
9,0 |
11,8 |
12,0 |
11,7 |
— Because of the aggravation of the international relations |
0,4 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,2 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,0 |
— Because of the worsening crime situation |
0,1 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
— Bad conditions with the ecological situation |
0,2 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
— Inconsistency of the climatic conditions |
0,3 |
0,2 |
0,1 |
0,3 |
0,3 |
0,2 |
0,2 |
0,2 |
— private, family character |
59,3 |
45,0 |
45,2 |
44,9 |
60,0 |
48,9 |
50,9 |
47,8 |
— other reasons |
5,1 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
3,2 |
12,0 |
6,3 |
8,5 |
5,3 |
It is well known that an unfulfilled need or encourage people to change their place of the work or the residence, or both simultaneously. Therefore, the second step in the study of the migration of population mobility is to examine the reasons why people leave the North.
According to the reasons of the arrival we can make several conclusions. The main reasons for departure from the Russian North are four: 1) the reasons for personal, family matters - 54.6%, and 2) in relation to work - 11.7%, and 3) a return to their former place of residence - 11.4% 4) connection with study - 10.9%. Reasons for leaving for North Asia from 2005 to 2010. remain on the rank of permanent value: the first place is the reason "personal, family matters", the second -a "return to their former place of residence", the third - "in connection with the work," and in fourth place - "in connection with his studies."
The European North has a distinctive set of causes out. In the first place overall for all reason "personal, family character" - 55.7% in second place - "in connection with his studies" - 13.7% (in the whole North 4th place) in the third - "in connection with work "- 9.5% in the fourth -" return to their former place of the residence "- 8.4% (Table 10 ).
Table 10 The distribution of the migrants in the age of 14 years and older on the circumstances, caused the need for a change of the residence of the Northern subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas in 2005 and 2010 %
— private, family character
— other reasons
58,5 53,6 55,052,6
5,0 5,0 5,34,7
59,6 54,6 55,753,9
12,0 10,3 11,79,4
In the Russian North in the demographic development and management of the national economy workforce consists of the extreme adversity, and if it is not correct to make every effort in the first place by the government, the consequences can be dire. This applies to the population of strategically and geopolitically important land, population density in the budget, preserve the unique northern people.
Today to explore the North with the previous methods (number, not a skill) is not possible. Demographic crisis has prompted the organization to look for other ways and, above all, through the development of human resources and their education. According to Census 2010, the level of education of the population aged 15 and older in the northern regions, areas which relate entirely to the Far North and similar areas, was slightly above the nationwide level: 996 against 994 per 1 thousand. But if you look at the level of training, we can see that the Russian North loses population with post-graduate, higher and incomplete higher education: 257 versus 280 per one thousand people, and wins at the middle and primary vocational education: respectively 406 and 368 (Table 11).
Table 11 The level of the education of the population at the age of 15 years and older in the Northern subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas according to the census in 1989, 2010, on the 1 thousand of the population of the same age |
||||||||
Education |
Russian Federation |
North of Russia |
European North |
Asian North |
||||
1989 |
2010 |
1989 |
2010 |
1989 |
2010 |
1989 |
2010 |
|
At one thousand people aged 15 and older who |
935 |
994 |
967 |
996 |
958 |
996 |
975 |
996 |
are educated Including professional |
451 |
648 |
528 |
663 |
510 |
659 |
545 |
667 |
postgraduate education |
113 |
234 |
110 |
216 |
102 |
194 |
117 |
235 |
and high education The beginning of the high |
17 |
46 |
13 |
41 |
12 |
35 |
13 |
47 |
average |
192 |
312 |
232 |
339 |
213 |
344 |
252 |
335 |
primary |
129 |
56 |
173 |
67 |
183 |
86 |
163 |
50 |
common |
484 |
346 |
439 |
333 |
448 |
337 |
430 |
329 |
average (full) |
178 |
182 |
198 |
185 |
169 |
166 |
228 |
202 |
primary |
177 |
110 |
159 |
111 |
175 |
124 |
143 |
99 |
primary |
129 |
54 |
82 |
37 |
104 |
47 |
59 |
28 |
No education |
65 |
6 |
33 |
4 |
42 |
4 |
25 |
4 |
primary education |
It should be noted that the educational level of the population of the region is enhanced if it has a positive balance of migration and, conversely, worse, if it gives people. Currently, the
North is losing population and, as a consequence, it loses the most educated, ie, with higher or incomplete higher education (Table 14). In these circumstances, need a fundamentally new socioeconomic mechanism to attract and retain people in the newly developed areas of the North and the Arctic. Need to find a common ground to coordinate the interests of the state, society, family, and personal in this matter.
Table 12
The distribution of the migrants at the age of 14 years and older on the level of education in the Northern subjects, territories which are fully refer to the Far North and to the similar areas in2005 and 2010 years., %
People, who have an education
2005 |
2010 |
c о ” Й 2 м ° ™ з to ° Regions . Ф " 2 ~ . ф Ф to" 2 & 60 ? ° to " 2 i a Q. “ > " Л ~ Q. Q. о to m £ to О to — Ф О. ф £ Ф |
c с о о пз П5 V О D > з "О 5- "О Ф го О § 2 ь ф С Ф u tn ф го с а. |
Arrived Russian Federation 24,6 28,1 31,7 11,8 3,8 31,5 27,5 North of Russia 25,5 29,4 31,4 11,6 2,1 32,2 31,6 European North 22,4 29,2 35,1 11,0 2,3 27,5 33,6 Asian North 27,4 29,5 29,1 11,9 2,1 34,6 30,5 |
28,4 9,0 3,6 24,3 9,6 2,3 26,1 9,7 3,1 23,4 9,6 1,9 |
Leavers Russian Federation 24,8 27,8 31,7 11,8 3,9 32,4 27,6 North of Russia 25,6 29,8 32,9 9,9 1,8 34,6 29,8 European North 23,6 30,4 33,4 10,5 2,1 32,3 30,9 Asian North 26,8 29,4 32,6 9,5 1,7 36,1 29,2 |
27,5 8,9 3,6 26,1 7,4 2,0 26,3 8,1 2,4 26,0 7,0 1,7 |
Migration gain (loss) Russian Federation 21,3 33,2 30,7 11,6 3,2 19,3 26,6 North of Russia -25,7 -31,7 -39,2 -2,8 -0,6 -41,1 -25,2 European North -27,8 -34,2 -27,7 -8,9 -1,4 -40,5 -26,4 Asian North -23,5 -29,2 -50,8 3,3 0,2 -42,0 -23,8 |
40,9 10,5 2,7 -31,1 -1,4 -1,2 -26,7 -5,3 -1,1 -36,3 3,3 -1,2 |
To attract and retain people and, above all, young people in the newly developed areas of the North and the Arctic is necessary to offer a package of economic incentives and social services that can make the North of Russia attractive and competitive in determining their life strategies of the country's population. As a tool could be concept of youth migration policy, "Economic lending mechanism of demographic and migration measures to attract and retain young people in the newly developed areas of the North and the Arctic" and several others. Currently, there is no such documents.
In the near future to propose and justify legislative initiatives, the list of the economic incentives and the social services designed to attract and retain people and, above all, young people in the newly developed areas of the North, to develop an effective mechanism for funding related to the solution of demographic and migration problems in Russian North, offer levels of liability and the amount of funds (co-financing) demographic and migration events to attract and retain young people in the North and the Arctic.
Approaches to the formation of the population of the Arctic zone
In practice, the development of the northern regions and the Arctic are widely used two approaches: the formation of a permanent population on the basis of fixed settlements and shift method with temporary settlements. As for the Arctic regions of Russia the approach of forming permanent population is unacceptable, a brief introduction to the ship's method. Shift work can be divided into two categories - the intra-Watch (residing in the far north) and interregional watch (employees residing outside of the Far North, delivered from Moscow, Ufa, Tyumen, Krasnodar, Belgorod, etc. ).
What gives the shift method of the state? The main benefits in the shifts works include: reducing the cost of the production of the mineral resources (due to the low cost of the maintenance of the social infrastructure), the possibility of labor migration (the use of unclaimed in the labor market), and increase local revenues (the effect on the growth of the purchasing power of individuals , shift work), reducing the burden on local governments in the implementation of the social programs for the residents of the Far North and similar areas (programs perform employers.
Thus, the use of the shifts Works opens to the state the following possibilities: an increase in the taxable profits of enterprises, mining minerals in the Far North and similar areas, as a consequence of the growth of budget revenues, reduction of state budget expenditures related to the maintenance of social infrastructure of items as well as the implementation of the social programs, the management of employment.
Limitations of the shifts works are mainly due to the negative impact on workers' health, as well as on the state of family and kinship. At the same time, employers usually do design and implement special rehabilitation and recovery programs for their employees. For example, the company "Yamburg gas extraction" contains in field camps planned unprofitable medical facilities equipped with the most modern medical equipment. In addition, each year more than 8000 employees are sent by means of the enterprise in the rehabilitation treatment and rest in the best clinics and health resorts of the country. So, the benefits are obvious work in shifts (for the state and the employer). Disadvantages for workers leveled special programs and, in addition, high-income workers.
A few words about the benefits of bringing the work shifts of persons residing in the Far North and similar areas. It should be noted that the period of active development communities of the northern territories effectively ended. For example, the construction and development of the cities and towns of the Yamal-Nenets autonomous region entirely dependent on the pace of development of hydrocarbon fields (Table 13).
Table 13
The number and size of urban areas of the Yamal Nenets AO according to the census in 1979—2010
Year |
number |
Number, people |
||||
total |
city |
pgt |
total |
city |
pgt |
|
1979 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
80 100 |
69 526 |
10 574 |
1989 |
14 |
5 |
9 |
385 614 |
301 595 |
84 019 |
2002 |
16 |
7 |
9 |
422 826 |
357 303 |
65 523 |
2010 |
13 |
8 |
5 |
443 043 |
407 942 |
35 101 |
Cities such as Nadim, New Urengoy, Noyabrsk virtually exhausted the resources of growth. In this case, these communities have been highly professional workforce, they have created all the necessary infrastructure for the production, function-oriented gas industry and educational institutions, etc. The decline in production of hydrocarbons leads to redundancy of labor in the cities and towns of the northern territories. Excess capacity to provide employment in other sectors of the economy is virtually impossible because of unprofitability in the Northern regions of production, non-production of hydrocarbons, and in the service just is not enough jobs.
Taking into account the low mobility of the inhabitants of the Far North, low psychological readiness of citizens to migrate to regions with a much lower level of income, we can predict a gradual increase in social tension in the northern regions, the growth of unemployment, the constant increase in costs of local and federal budgets for the maintenance and updating of social infrastructure for the implementation of social programs for "northerners" relating to, among other things, to the resettlement of people living in the Far North in place, better to stay. мобильность
Avoid these problems, perhaps by attracting residents of the northern territories to develop new deposits in shifts of the work organization. For example, for the implementation of the largest in the last 10 years of the investment project of JSC "Gazprom" - Polar exploration fields -company "Yamburg gas extraction" were involved in the labor force of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. More than 3 thousand northerners were provided with jobs, wages and social benefits. The practice of raising society "Yamburg gas extraction" the inhabitants of Yamal to work shifts suggests the following: after the assignment of the right to retirement pension employees acquire housing outside of the district, carrying the family and go on inter watch (through appropriate social programs of employers).
The development of gas-ahead Yamal fields, mineral deposits of the Polar Urals, etc. Recently, the company actively developing so-called "small-TEK", who master the small and relatively low-profit field (again using rotational staff).
Thus, we can safely say that the use of the employers in the shifts Works can solve public problems: provide employment to the residents of the northern territories, the completion of the budget revenue of the municipalities of the northern territories, and the performance of the declared state of the social programs [13, p. 295-301].
As the part of the social policy in all key areas of business of OJSC "NK" Rosneft "implements the complex of the socio-economic programs. In 2011, the regions of the funded construction, repair and rehabilitation of more than 150 social projects. A number of projects were aimed at improving the social and domestic life for employees. In particular, on-site support base fishing Vankor commissioned a modern complex of buildings residential camp. The company provides about 170 thousand jobs 14, p. 7 .
The area immediately adjacent to the coast of the Arctic seas are subject to the economic activities of industrial structures and the native population, but are unsuitable for the permanent residence in the permanent towns due to the extremely extreme climatic conditions. Therefore, these areas should be the presence of habitat is very limited contingent represented indigenous, native traditional way of life, and the employees of business entities engaged in labor activities in the shift-forwarding mode. In these areas must act "membrane" principle of persons, engaged in labor activities in shifts of the forwarding method. Arriving on the territory, the caregivers should be limited in scope to move it except territorial transactions related to production activity. Other types of the movement and the use of resources of the territory, especially biological resources and landscape, should be excluded.
Approach, connected with a ban on other activities besides production, for people working in field and forwarding mode must be fixed at the federal regulatory level. Of course, the Arctic territory does not have to be a place forbidden to stay in the connection with the research, educational and tourist and recreational purposes.
However, not all the Arctic regions are poorly populated. Areas located in the European part of the Arctic and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area and the northern Krasnoyarsk region have fairly developed settlement system, including large urban settlements. In this regard, the number of regions of the Russian Arctic has passed the "point of no return", when all the talk about the need to reduce the population in the Arctic, including by closing the northern cities are nothing more than a source of the social and political tensions and objectively not consistent with the objectives of the socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic set forth in the Principles.
In the framework of the regional policy in the Arctic should be put through the principle of maximum use of the infrastructure and the human resource potentials of existing settlements. At the same time in the future economic development of the Arctic territories should apply only in shifts and forwarding method. This approach is justified as a medical and the social and human points of view, and from the standpoint of the rational use of the human and budgetary resources, environmental safety of the Arctic territories.
For the Arctic areas should be regulated by a number of the systemic principles. Here are just two of them.
First, to introduce statutory prohibition on the establishment of new settlements with a permanent population in the Russian Arctic, or the transfer of settlement shift to fixed. This should make the most unique cities in the working potential of the Arctic during the development of new areas of the Russian Arctic, through the application of intra-and inter-regional surveillance. Among other things, this will contribute to adequate behavior of employees in the Arctic, as they themselves live there permanently.
Second, as a priority, to direct budget investments to modernize Housing Arctic settlements. Already established communities with a permanent population and infrastructure to be considered as a result of the previously generated considerable public investment and, accordingly, as a real asset and a tool of the state participation in the economic development of the Arctic territories.
It should be added that the settlements are often the only element of the state presence, state "outposts" in large areas of the eastern sector of the Russian Far East and the Arctic, where only be commercial development 15, p. 65, 66, 68, 69 .
Conclusion
Ahead of the difficult and important period associated with the development of measures to implement the priorities of the state policy of the development of the Arctic regions, have been described in the Principles of the State Policy 2, 3 . But all is not declarative, and, in fact, the center should take the man and his well-being, health and decent to this period. Developing the Arctic, we must not allow the mistakes that were made during the development of the Russian North.
Список литературы The demographic potential of Russia's Northern regions as a factor of the economic development of the Arctic
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