The expert image of the Russian civil society
Автор: Ukhanova Yuliya V.
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Social development
Статья в выпуске: 4 (58) т.11, 2018 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Civil society plays an increasingly important role in the economic and social development around the world. The article attempts to identify the conditions for the functioning of the civil society in Russia and forecast its development in the near future. The empirical framework of the research lies in the results of an expert survey held by the Russian Academy of Sciences in February-March, 2018. The research methods are based on two principles: first, the forecasting process is based on the procedure of expert evaluation of the current conditions, probability, and preference of possible changes in the civil society. Second, analysis is carried out as a result of integration of assessments of experts representing various socio-political spheres (government, business, third sector, science, the media). The research reveals that expert opinions on all aspects of functioning of the civil society are highly differentiated, which, on the one hand, can be explained by different ideological views of the expert community, on the other - indicates the current extremely uncertain and contradictory state of the sphere under study and its prospects...
Civil society, civil participation, social forecasting, expert assessments
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147224074
IDR: 147224074 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.4.58.13
Список литературы The expert image of the Russian civil society
- Shabunova A.A. Social activity in rural localities: opportunities for development. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory’s Development, 2016, no. 3 (83), pp. 7-17..
- Jantsch E. Prognozirovanie nauchno-tekhnicheskogo progressa . Moscow: Progress, 1974. 210 p.
- Konstantinovskii D.L. Social forecasting. Selection of factors and reaction to the forecast. In: VII-ya mezhdunarodnaya sotsiologicheskaya Grushinskaya konferentsiya "Navstrechu budushchemu. Prognozirovanie v sotsiologicheskikh issledovaniyakh" . Moscow: VTsIOM, 2017. Pp. 19-21..
- Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Rabochaya kniga po prognozirovaniyu . Moscow: Mysl’, 1982. 430 p.
- Gordon T.J., Helmer O. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. September 1964. Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation, 1964. 64 p.
- Helmer O. Social Technology. Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation, 1965. 70 p.
- Attneave S.F. Psychological probability as a function of experienced frequency. J. Exp. Psychol, 1953, no. 46, pp. 81-86.
- Alberoni F. Contribution to the study of subjective probability. Part I. Journal of General Psychology, 1962, vol. 66, pp. 241-264.
- Benson P.G., Nichols M.L. An investigation of motivational bias in subjective predictive probability distributions. Decision sei., 1982, vol. 13, pp. 18-23.
- Li F., Pye S. Uncertainty, politics, and technology: Expert perceptions on energy transitions in the United Kingdom. Energy Research & Social Science, 2018, vol. 37, pp.122-132 DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.003
- Zadorin I.V. Expert scenario-based forecasting monitoring: methodological foundations, methodology and organizational scheme. Voprosy sotsiologii=Issues of Sociology, 1994, no. 5, pp. 27-50..
- Gorshkov M.K., Petukhov V.V. (Eds.). Rossiiskoe obshchestvo i vyzovy vremeni. Kniga chetvertaya . Moscow: Ves’ Mir, 2016. 400 p.
- Zadorin I.V., Zaitsev D.G., Rimskii V.P. Civil society in Russia in the near future: expert research findings. Politiya, 2009, no. 4 (55), pp. 143-157..
- Newton K. Patterns of Participation: Political and Social Participation in 22 Nations. Berlin, 2008. 45 p.
- Yakobson L.I., Marsiyanova I.V. et al. Grazhdanskoe obshchestvo v moderniziruyushcheisya Rossii . Moscow: NIU VShE, 2011. 60 p.
- Bardin A.L. Patriotism. In: Semenenko I.S. (Ed.). Identichnost’, lichnost’, obshchestvo, politika. Entsiklopedicheskoe izdanie . Moscow: Ves’ mir, 2017. Pp. 598-607..
- Morev M.V. Global threats and national specifi cs of social capital formation in Russia. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of territory’s development, 2018, no. 2 (94), pp. 106-119. DOI: 10.15838/ptd/2018.2.94.7
- Ukhanova Yu.V. Participation as an element of democracy in the Russian society. Sotsial’noe prostranstvo=Social Area, 2018, no. 2 (14). DOI: 10.15838/sa.2018.2.14.5
- Skalaban I.A. Obshchestvennoe uchastie kak sotsial’nyi proekt: diss. na soiskanie uch. stepeni d.s.n. Novosibirsk: NGTU, 2017. 382 p.
- Barber B. Participation and mass apathy in association. In: Gouldner A.W. (Ed.). Studies in Leadership. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1950. Pp. 477-504.
- Morev M.V., Guzhavina T.A., Smoleva E.O., Kaminskii V.S., Kosyginav, Ukhanova Yu.V., Golovchin M.A., Popov A.V., Rossoshanskii A.I. Grazhdanskoe obshchestvo obshchestvo grazhdan: monografiya . Vologda: VolNTs RAN, 2017. 190 p.
- Shabunova A.A., Guzhavina T.A., Kozhina T.P. Trust and social development in Russia. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory’s Development, 2015, no. 2 (76), pp. 7-19..
- Fukuyama F. Doverie: sotsial’nye dobrodeteli i put’ k protsvetaniyu . Translated from English. Moscow: Ermak, 2004. 730 p.
- Frolova S.M., Zamchalova I.Yu. The role and prospects of the religious factor in the development of Russian society. In: Gosudarstvo, obshchestvo, tserkov’ v istorii Rossii XX-XXI vekov. Materialy XIV mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii: v 2 ch. . Ivanovo: Ivanovskii gosudarstvennyi universitet, 2015. Pp. 312-319..
- Osipov G.V. We must not miss the chance! In: Sotsiologiya i ekonomika sovremennoi sotsial’noi real’nosti. Sotsial’naya i sotsial’no-politicheskaya situatsiya v Rossii v 2013 godu . Moscow: ISPI RAN, 2013. 303 p..
- Ilyin V.A. Development of civil society in Russia in conditions of "capitalism for the few". Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2017, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 9-40. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.4.52.1
