The inflation and unemployment processes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

The inflation and unemployment processes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Автор: Romashkina G.F., Andrianov K.V., Skripnuk D.F.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social and economic development

Статья в выпуске: 3 т.16, 2023 года.

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The article considers the features of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in related developing economies during the economic crisis and after it. Latin American countries (2020- 2022) are the object of the study. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the presence and closeness ofsignificantrelationships betweenthe processesofinflationand unemployment, includingthe possibility of taking into account other macroeconomic variables affecting the processes of inflation and unemployment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The relevance of the study is determined by the possibility of monitoring the development of the economic crisis. The analysis of linear regressions on pseudo-panel data was carried out. The general model took into account the size and features of the economy, economic policy, as well as some social effects (the dynamics of unemployment and inflation, specific mortality due to coronavirus, the size of the labor resources for the economy). The models constructed help to study the general crisis dynamics and show the rate of recovery for the trends. The novelty of the results includes an assessment of the effectiveness of management tools in the context of strong external shocks. It is empirically confirmed that there was no direct relationship between the processes of inflation and unemployment in Latin American countries during the period under consideration. A detailed analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors and factors reflecting the behavior of state institutions may be useful for considering the risks of anti-crisis measures. Inflation is the most controllable process that can be influenced by tools. Unemployment, as a subject of regulation, is a more complex process involving various state institutions; at that, the success of decisions depends mainly on taking into account the country’s export specialization, the pace and severity of anti-crisis measures.

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Inflation, unemployment, crisis, covid-19, macroeconomics, behavior, finance, modeling, regulation

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147241604

IDR: 147241604   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.3.87.11

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