The region with the lowest attractiveness for young people?

Автор: Svetlana V. Saidanova, Galina N. Dernova

Журнал: Arctic and North @arctic-and-north

Статья в выпуске: 22, 2016 года.

Бесплатный доступ

The article presents the analysis of migration in the Arkhangelsk region. Focus is made on the people of working age — young people aged 15 to 29 years. The background for the study are the indicators of migration, statistics for the period 2010 — November 2014, laws and regulatory documents. The authors conclude that Arkhangelsk region is an area with low attractiveness to migrants. A significantly larger number of young, qualified personnel is leaving our area and its amount is bigger than the amount of newcomers. This situation damages regional economy and social sphere significantly.

Arkhangelsk region, migration of young people, demographic situation, migration patterns, ranking of the NWFD regions by immigration attractiveness

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/148318677

IDR: 148318677 | DOI: 10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.22.145

Текст научной статьи The region with the lowest attractiveness for young people?

The population of the Arkhangelsk Region is annually reducing by a variety of reasons. On the 1st of January 2015 the population of the Arkhangelsk Region, including the Nenets Autonomous District, was 1,183,323 people, including the urban population — 910,837 people, rural population — 272,486 people1. It should be noted that the region loses an enormous share of the population every year. So, for example, only in 2010—2014 the population decreased by 45,708 people: 1,237,493 people in 2010 and 1,191,785 people in 2014. The most alarming phenomenon in the demographic situation affecting the “population decline, this depopulation (natural population decline due to excess of deaths over births)” [1, p. 443]. In 2010—2014 the Arkhangelsk region got a tendency to reduce the natural decline in population. But despite this, still disappointing is the excess of deaths over births, data proving that is in Table 1.

Table 1

Major indices of migration in the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District ²

Year

Increase/reduce of

Born, people Died, people Depopulation index

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

15,466 17,975 1.16 -2,509

14,930 16,930 1.13 -2,000

15,478 16,472 1.06 -994

15,305 15,967 1.04 -662

13,735 14,308 1.04 -573

Thus, the Arkhangelsk region has a permanent tendency to reduce the population and the excess of deaths over births.

Certainly the unfavorable demographic trends in the region are largely related to the deterioration of the migration situation, as there is a significant outflow of the population. Migration plays an important role in the socio-ekonomic development of many regions of Russia [2, 3]. This trend is typical for the Arkhangelsk Region. The number of the retired population in the region is much greater than the number of arriving, which naturally leads to a decline in population and migration and in general it shows a low attractiveness of the Arkhangelsk region for migrants. Referring to the statistical data, it can be noted that in 2003—2014 a fixed annual migration loss is be- tween 5,835 people in 2008 to 10,244 in 2012.

Table 2

Migration of population in the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District ³

Years	Urban and rural population	Increase (decrease) of population Urban	Rural
2003	-7,604	-1,226	-6,378
2004	-7,691	-1,042	-6,649
2005	-9,251	-3,064	-6,187
2006	-8,908	-2,380	-6,528
2007	-5,835	-452	-5,383
2008	-7,638	-2,770	-4,868
2009	-6,143	-694	-5,449
2010	-10,104	-2,043	-8,061
2011	-9,347	-2,343	-7,004
2012	-10,244	-3,755	-6,489
2013	-9,848	-4,163	-5,685
2014	-7,721	-1,200	-1,509

Notes: For 2003—2010 the data was accounted with a regard to the results of the 2010 population census. In accordance with the international recommendations since 2011 the statistical accounting of long-term migration includes people who are registered at the place of residence for a period of 9 months or more.

One of the most active social and demographic groups by the outflow of population is youth. The population of working age and younger is more adventurous to the migration process- es, rather than the older generation.

Social and demographic characteristics of migrants in 2014, the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District ⁴

Table 3

Age of migrants	Amount of arrivals			Amount of departed			Increase of migration
Age of migrants	all	men	women	all	men	women	all	men	women
Tatal	36,533	17,211	19,322	44,254	20,447	23,807	-7,721	-3,236	-4,485
Including the people aged:
Yonger than employable
age	6,659	3,337	3,322	7,616	3,879	3,737	-957	-542	-415
Employable	26,405	12,919	13,486	31,939	15,274	16,665	-5,534	-2,355	-3,179
Older than employable
age	3,469	955	2,514	4,699	1,294	3,405	-1,230	-339	-891
14 years old and older	30,434	14,175	16,259	37,275	16,887	20,388	-6,841	-2,712	-4,129
18 years and older	28,021	12,888	15,133	34,508	15,438	19,070	-6,487	-2,550	-3,937
Age groups:
0—4	2,752	1,389	1,363	3,026	1,559	1,467	-274	-170	-104
5—9	2,230	1,106	1,124	2,556	1,305	1,251	-326	-199	-127
10—14	1,327	659	668	1,657	828	829	-330	-169	-161
15—19	4,343	2,009	2,334	5,348	2,533	2,815	-1,005	-524	-481
20—24	4,727	2,054	2,673	5,431	2,344	3,087	-704	-290	-414
25—29	5,779	2,642	3,137	6,903	2,982	3,921	-1,124	-340	-784
30—34	3,999	1,876	2,123	4,976	2,259	2,717	-977	-383	-594
35—39	2,672	1,396	1,276	3,274	1,645	1,629	-602	-249	-353
40—44	1,581	850	731	2,002	1,060	942	-421	-210	-211
45—49	1,499	849	650	1,698	932	766	-199	-83	-116
50—54	1,496	767	729	1,848	870	978	-352	-103	-249
55—59	1,346	659	687	1,810	836	974	-464	-177	-287
60—64	953	424	529	1,419	603	816	-466	-179	-287
65—69	470	194	276	708	288	420	-238	-94	-144
70—74	386	131	255	473	160	313	-87	-29	-58
75—79	370	104	266	465	126	339	-95	-22	-73
80 years old and older	603	102	501	660	117	543	-57	-15	-42

The most numerous groups among former migrants are young people aged 15—19, 20—24, 25—29 and 30—34 years — people of working age ( Table 3 ). It is 22,658 people or more than 51% of all departures from the region. This process, unfortunately, is widespread and leads to a reduction in the number of population, rapid aging and reduce the region's intellectual potential. The number of people of working age who left in 2014 was 31,939 or more than 72% of the total number of departures. The result is that there is a danger of increasing population aging.

The outflow of people below working age is not so significant, but it is important compared to the older generation (Pic. 1).

	2010	2011	2012	2013
■ лица моложе трудоспособного возраста	2250	5961	6869	7652
■ лица в трудоспособном возрасте	13329	28565	34502	34923
■ лица старше трудоспособного возраста	2232	4613	5170	4908

Picture 1. Amount of people departed from the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District. People of the working age are the most numerous group (the red one). Blue — below this age, green — older than it.

We should also pay attention to such an indicator as the ratio of the volume of migration of rural and urban population. In today's Russian society, reduce of the number of rural population is bigger that urban. One of the fundamental reasons for this phenomenon is the increase in migration outflow of rural youth to the city. In the rural areas we observe a rapidly growing number of elderly people and there is a decline in working-age people. The migration outflow from rural areas in the Arkhangelsk region exceeds the levels of migration outflow of urban population, which speaks of the difficulties of the rural labor market and the extremely low level of living comfort there.

Table 4

Migration in the urban and rural areas of the the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District ⁵

Years	Urban (people)	Rural (people)
2010	-2,043	-8,061
2011	-2,343	-7,004
2012	-3,755	- 6,489
2013	-4,163	- 5,685

Note. In accordance with international recommendations since 2011 statistical accounting of long-term migration of population also includes persons who are registered at the place of residence for a period of 9 months or more.

In order to reduce the migration of young people and sustainable growth of population in the countryside and strengthening the working capacity of the region there is a program “Sustain-

5 Sootnoshenie obyomov migracii gorodskogo i selskogo naseleniya Arkhangelskoj oblasti, vklyuchaya Neneckij avtonomnyj okrug. URL: (Accessed: 04 February 2015).

able development of the rural areas of the Arkhangelsk region (2014-2017 years)”, aimed at stimulation of investment activity in the agricultural sector and the creation of favorable infrastructure6.

A feature of the migratory movements in the Arkhangelsk Region is migration exchange between the other regions of Russia, the so-called inter-regional migration has a significant impact on the change in population. Where do the youth go when leaving their small motherland? Among the main subjects of the Russian Federation, where migrants come or leave, is St.-Petersburg. So, for the period from 2010 to 2013 the outflow to the Northern capital from the Arkhangelsk Region was 13,159 people and 4,825 people arrived. The next in the list is Vologda and Moscow region⁷( Table 5 ).

Table 5

Migrational exchange between the Arkhangelsk Region, the Nenets Autonomous District and the other regions of Russia
	Arrived	2010 Departed	2011		Arrived	2012 Departed	Arrived	2013 Departed
	Arrived	2010 Departed	Arrived	Departed	Arrived	2012 Departed	Arrived	2013 Departed
Moscow	60	748	201	664	327	1,006	404	1 065
Moscow Region	97	857	290	1,490	745	2,581	1 007	2,154
Yaroslavl Region	62	631	181	1 135	383	1 295	549	1 527
Belgorod Region	37	289	90	389	155	418	153	420
St.Petersburg	238	1,348	658	3,022	1,982	4 038	1,947	4,751
Leningrad Region	124	601	309	1 458	663	1 482	685	1 390
Vologda Region	316	888	750	1,719	1,005	2,033	1,157	1,994
Murmansk Region	239	460	843	1,089	1,022	984	904	870
Komi Republic	211	420	481	638	607	713	619	758
Krasnodarsky Krai	87	498	314	836	473	886	456	1069

During this period of time the number of the people who left the Arkhangelsk region and moved to all subjects of the Russian Federation is considered greater than the number of arrived people. In order to illustrate it we present migratory exchange for 2013 ( pic. 2).

Picture 2. Migrational exchange between the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District and other Russian regions 2013. The biggest exchange is with Saint-Petersburg.

Almost the same is the situation of migrational exchange to the federal districts (the number of people left is higher than the number of arrivals). But in 2013 the only district with positive migrational exchange was Siberian Federal District, The greatest importance still have North-West and Central Federal Districts ( pic. 3 ).

Picture 3. Migrational exchange between the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District and Federal Districts of Russia 2013. The biggest exchange is with the North-West Federal District.

It is also interesting to refer to the list of regions of the North-West Federal District more attractive to migration in January — August 2014, where the Arkhangelsk Region got the 9^th place with its migration loss of 4,087 persons ( Table 6 ).

Table 6

Migration attraction rating for the areas of the North-West Federal District ⁸
№	Subject of the Russian Federation	Arrived (people)	Departed (people)	Increase/decrease of migration
	Northwestern Federal District	377,062	348,828	+28,234
1	St. Petersburg	161,211	138,117	23,094
2	Leningrad region	61,974	47,163	14,811
3	Kaliningrad region	22,130	17,584	4,546
4	Vologda Region	22,186	21,767	419
5	Novgorod region	15,587	15,454	133
6	NAD	1,351	1,311	40
7	The Republic of Karelia	13,638	13,863	-225
8	Pskov region	16,344	16,973	-629
9	Arkhangelsk region	20,160	24,247	-4,087
10	Murmansk region	22,247	26,566	-4,319
11	Komi Republic	20,234	25,783	-5,549

St. Petersburg with a migration gain of 23,094 people and the Leningrad region are still the most attractive for migrants. By August 2014 the population has grown at the expense of migrants of 14,811 people. The last in the rating was the Murmansk Region with a migration loss of 4 319 people and the Republic of Komi with the loss of 5,549 people. The Arkhangelsk region was at the 9th place (minus 4,087 people).

The Arkhangelsk region is not only left by people who move to the other regions and countries. It also gets external migrants. Of interest is the number of people with a migration registration in the Arkhangelsk region. The total number of them, according to the Office of the Federal Migration Service of the Arkhangelsk region,: in 2012 — 25,851 people in 2013 — 28,391 people, in 2014 — 27,751 people. Major groups of foreign people in Arkhangelsk in 2014 are migrants from: Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Armenia, Germany, Moldova, India, Norway and Finland.

Analysis of external migration flows for the past five years , allows us to define six priority countries where do the migrants come from: Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia. Indian migrants in 2012 — 2,207 people, in 2013 — 3,181 people and in 2014 — 856 people. Migrants from Norway: 849, 680, 771 people, respectively. The aims of entry of external migrants: work in the construction, trade and other sectors, private and business trips. Ususally, migrants are young men aged 18 to 39 years.

The implementation of long-term target program “Assistance to the voluntary resettlement to the Arkhangelsk region for compatriots living abroad for 2013-2015” will increase the number of eco-

—

Moskovskaya oblast. URL: nomically active population in the area. Migrants can fill the vacancies in educational, medical, state institutions, “workers of preschool education and specialists for agricultural organizations, which will ensure the development of social sphere and the economy of the Arkhangelsk Region”9.

Within the framework of the state program for the 2013—2014 the region got 417 people: 274 participants of the program and 143 family members. “Age of compatriots ranges from 19 to 60 years. 76% of compatriots are citizens of Ukraine, 6.1% — the Republic of Armenia, 4.8% — Moldova, 4.8% — the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2.5% — the Republic of Kazakhstan”10.

Conclusion

What makes people leave their homeland in the Arkhangelsk North? The main reasons for young people to departure from the Arkhangelsk region to more developed metropolitan areas: the bad climatic conditions, inflated costs for housing, low wages, lack of opportunities for self-realization and long-term growth, an insufficient number of recreational organizations, as well as undeveloped infrastructures of the region.

Does the region have the future when the young people leave? Of course, the answer to this questions requires further research and anlysis.

Summarizing the study of migration, it should be noted that the Arkhangelsk region is a territory, which “gives away” the population to other regions of the country; the most active age group is young people. This leads to suffering of economy and social sphere, a lack of skilled workers and specialists. The ongoing positive change in the socio-economic development of the region will undoubtedly help to reduce the outflow of young people.

Список литературы The region with the lowest attractiveness for young people?

Averyanova A.S. Vliyanie demograficheskih processov na severnyj rynok truda (na primere Arhangelskoj oblasti). Severnyj vektor razvitiya Rossii. 2008. p. 443.
Kopteva E.V., Tukach V.S., Chunina A.E. Osobennosti migracionnyh processov v Kaliningrad-skoj oblasti. Molodoj uchenyj. 2015. № 1 (81). pp. 235—239.
Pavlov A.Yu., Rassadin V.V. Povyshenie effektivnosti trudovogo potenciala kak faktor sohraneniya selskix territorij. Fundament Research. 2015. № 2. pp. 362.

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