Theoretical base for over viewing risks in the energy sector

Russian energy industry is represented by v ertically-integrated companies, as well as medium and small independent oil companies. By the beginning of 2015 oil production in Russia was carried out in 325 enterprises, 145 of which are among the vertically-integrated energy companies, as well as 177 are independent oil producing companies1. More than 90% of the total oil and condensate production in Russia are accounted for eight of vertically integrated companies.

The raw material base of Russian energy industry in 1500 are oil, gas condensate and energy fields, 800 of which are under development. In the field of oil refining there are 27 plants with total capacity for primary processing of oil of 253 million tones per year, 200 mini-mills and 6 factories, specializing in the production of oils and lubricants2. Currently, many of the country's strategic goals and objectives are related to the development of the North, as on the northern territory of Russia, which occupies more than 60% of the country, it holds about 80% of commercial reserves of oil and almost 100% of the produced gas. However, the development of the North is expected to attract considerable financial and material resources to ensure an acceptable standard of living in harsh climatic conditions.

Currently, the state and prospects of development of Russian energy industry are characterized by the following main issues.

The massive outflow from operating fixed assets in 2015 amounted to 60% -in the oil industry and more than 57% - in the gas sector. In many refineries degree of depreciation of fixed assets is 80%, which is partly responsible for finding a Russian one of the last places in the world in terms of oil refining3. The sales volume of the secondary processes, deepening on oil refining in domestic refineries is very small and amounts to 10% of the sales volume of the primary processes. As a result, there is large waste production and a low yield of light products. The main cause of this problem is a long-term orientation of the refining industry in the processing of the primary processes and maximizing the volume of oil production.

In other countries, it develops the opposite structure of petroleum products. For example, in Russia 420 liters of gasoline is produced on 1 ton of oil, in the

United States 1 ton of oil is obtained with 420 liters of gasoline. Integral coefficient characterizing the efficiency of oil refining in Russia is 4.2-4.3, in the USA - 11, in European countries - more than 9. In the majority of oil-producing countries in the world refining is selected as the main strategic guidelines for the development of energy complex. Currently, the volume of oil refining in the USA has twice the volume of oil production, the country has 147 refineries. In China, it operates with 98 refineries, which provide fully processed 180 mln. tons per year of crude oil in the country and another 130 mln. tons of oil purchased from other states. The EU operates with 140 oil refineries.

In Russia, the average load of refineries processing raw materials is an average of 73%. This state of oil refining in Russia is due to high crude oil prices, with the result that the oil companies are more profitable to export primary materials due to the high cost of oil refining.

The main problems from the fact that oil reserves in traditional areas of oil production (Western Siberia, the Volga-Urals and North Caucasus regions) are in low-productivity stage, whose share is more than 35-40%. Therefore, indicators of production activities of oil companies are at a low level: average flow rate is 10-11 tons per day. Now the share of hard-to-reserves exceeds 60%, and in some areas as high as 90% or more. These figures testify to the economic inefficiency of producing fields, as maintenance of wells with water cut ratio of 92% or more, as practice shows, it appears unprofitable. Overall profitability of development of the most potential energy reserves is low because these reserves are located in remote areas with poor infrastructure.

From the overall analysis of the fuel and energy complex of Russia it is clear - the most important role in the structure of domestic energy consumption and two main types of hydrocarbon plays in the export of energy resources are energy. Based on this, a deeper analysis of the markets of these two energy sources will allow to fulfill the tasks of the study.

The Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035 is a comprehensive plan for development of the Russian fuel and energy sector. The strategy is based on the basic parameters of the Russian fuel and energy sector and defines the main goals and objectives as well as specific measures to achieve them. Subsequently, the energy strategy is a guide, which is based on the regional development strategies, such as "long-term strategy of energy development on the Yamal" or "long-term strategy of development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East." On the basis of the energy strategy the investment projects of public companies in the fuel and energy sector are formed.

By 2035, production of primary energy will increase by 2.6 times compared to the level of 2015, while consumption - 1.5 - 1.6 times, that is a substantially increase of self-sufficiency in the region. The first phase of the Strategy will continue the development of energy fields of the Sakhalin area (on the continental shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk) and oil deposits in the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (Talakan and adjacent fields).

Particular attention will be paid to the comprehensive utilization of associated petroleum gas and other components produced from a hydrocarbon feedstock, such as helium. Continue the project "Sakhalin-1" and "Sakhalin-2", as well as liquefied natural gas project development capacity and increase export of Russian liquefied natural gas to the Asia-Pacific region. Begin creating the Yakutia gas center in the Chayandinskoye gas condensate field and new gas transportation system, "Power of Siberia" on the deposits of Yakutia to Vladivostok center. To increase coal production in the region (mainly due to the deposits of Southern Yakutia).

The oil terminals in Nakhodka, De-Kastri, as well as coal - Vanino and Vostochny ports will be modernized. In remote and isolated areas heat and power from renewable energy sources will be developed. In the south of Primorsky Territory (Russian island and the island Popov) there will be a possible construction of a wind farm. The head floating power station - FNPP in Pevek Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - will be put into operation. Gasification of the south of the Far Eastern Federal District on the basis of Sakhalin gas will continue.

A large-scale export of electricity to China will begin. In the second phase of the Strategy implementation the volumes of energy production in the region will be increased. The development of the continental shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk (projects "Sakhalin-3", "Sakhalin-4," and others) And the development of Yakutia gas production center with the connection of new fields will continue. New gas processing centers, including n. Belogorie (Amurskaya region), a refinery in the Primorye Territory, the new plants to produce liquefied natural gas in Vladivostok and Sakhalin will be created. Exports of liquefied natural gas will be increased.

Operation of the Elga coal deposit in Yakutia will begin. Coal production growth will require capacity expansion of railroads in the western and eastern (for export to countries in the Asia-Pacific region) directions. Accelerated rates electricity will be developed, mainly by coal-fired power plants and hydroelectric power plants (comprising Energy Power), as well as heat and power plants running on gas in the cities.

It is envisaged accession of the Central energy district of Yakutia to the unified power system east of the country. In the third phase of the Strategy there is an implementation capacity of energy from new hydrocarbon fields (including the shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk near Magadan), the expansion of production and export of LNG and pipeline gas in the Asia-Pacific countries. Coal production will increase. Work on the accession of isolated power districts of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Magadan region in the unified state power grid will continue. The creation of the eastern gas transmission network, which, if necessary, allows it to connect to the Unified Gas Supply System, will be completed.

Large-scale development of electric networks 190 aimed at including in the strategic objective interconnection of Siberia and the Far East will be carried out. The conditions of formation of the Far Eastern Federal District of priority development areas, which are characterized by more rapid economic growth than the national average, the region's energy will have to be transformed in order to ensure its growing needs.

This factor determines the active development of the territory of the Federal District of new mining and processing facilities and the formation of entire energy clusters in the energy, petrochemical, coal industry; modernization of the existing energy infrastructure, as well as the transformation of the electric power system of the Far East. Network construction will pursue the goal of "pointing" bottlenecks and improve the utilization of existing generating capacity. Modernization of existing power plants and construction of new ones will be based on the combined cycle and gas turbine technologies - such policies will optimize fuel balance areas. A key focus is the development of hydropower, promoting, in particular, the solution of water problems. To improve the fuel self-sufficiency in the territories production of local fuels will be developed, primarily natural gas and coal as well as significantly increase the scale of the use of local renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal energy, tidal energy, wood, peat, biogas, waste forest complex) . Their use will help to stabilize the situation with the energy supply, especially in isolated power systems4.

The development of hydropower together with an increase in energy consumption will share local energy resources, the cost is lower than purchased fuel. It will reduce fuel prices and electricity prices to consumers of the Far Eastern Federal District. The solution of this problem is of great importance as the location and development in the Far East energy-intensive industries, which provide load power plants in the region and thereby significantly, affect the cost of supplied electricity. In some regions of the Far Eastern Federal District an important role in reducing the price of electricity a financing measures to eliminate inter-territorial cross-subsidies in the power sector with the involvement of the federal budget (for example, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Bilibino to withdrawal from service) will play.

In 2035 Far Eastern Federal District will be a large energy surplus region, fully self-sufficient in primary energy sources, including in remote areas (due to the use of local resources and renewable energy sources) and it will implement the exports to the Asia-Pacific region. Energy security of the Far Eastern Federal District will be fully provided with significantly increased energy efficiency of its economy.

"Экономика и социум" №4(23) 2016