Human resources basic competences transformation in the age of digitization

Introduction: digitalization processes are transforming economic sectors everywhere and creating demand for a new profile of human resources competencies, which raises the importance of defining the prospects for spatial digitalization of the Russian Federation national economy in the context of new industrialization. Objectives: to assess trends in the shift in basic competencies and professional skills of labor resources in the context of economic digitalization. Methods: system-structural analysis and the method of mathematical modeling were applied to identify key trends in the labor market associated with the transition to a digital economy, a forecast of key trends in the Russian labor market until 2030 was carried out in the context of economic sectors digitalization using regression and correlation analysis. Results: digital competencies development is closely related to key indicators of the labor market and economic conditions. The analysis of decent work indicators in the Russian Federation for 2000–2022 revealed that linear models have low forecasting accuracy (negative R² values and high MSE), which indicates the need to use more complex methods; polynomial regression (degree 3) also failed to provide accuracy for most indicators. As a result, alternative forecasting approaches were proposed, such as time series models (e.g., ARIMA) and machine learning methods (neural networks, gradient boosting), which better consider nonlinear dependencies and complex patterns. Recommendations were developed to optimize the process of transforming basic human resources competencies as a national economy component to address national priorities in the face of increasing turbulence in the macroenvironment. Conclusions: based on the calculated forecasts, key aspects influencing digital competencies development in Russia by 2030 were identified, and the prospects for introduction of digital technologies in social and labor relations within the framework of new industrialization were determined.