Trends in the Russian mortgage market

The article analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators of the Russian residential mortgage market according to the data of the Bank of Russia. It considers the construction of the forecast estimate of the number of issued residential mortgage loans for 2021 based on the revealed connection with the average weighted mortgage rate. Scenario forecast of the average weighted mortgage rate based on the cointegration model with the key rate of the Bank of Russia is built. Attention is focused on assessing the quality of the forecast model.