Tourism as a potential driver of regional economic growth: Assessment of multiplier effects and scenario modeling

The sustainable development of tourism in Russia requires expanding the supply and increasing tourism infrastructure facilities in the country’s regions. Many constituent entities of the Russian Federation have significant but unrealized tourism potential. The Vologda Region is among them, where tourism is a promising economic specialization. The multiplier effects generated by the tourism industry require appropriate measurement for national and regional economies. In this regard, assessing the economic effects of tourism development in the region and substantiating its role as a factor in regional economic growth become relevant. This necessitated the development of methodological tools for identifying promising projects, calculating their effects on the regional economy, and formulating practical recommendations based on the assessment. The methodological basis of the research was the input-output balance toolkit, including the development of authorial input-output tables. The information base consisted of official data from Rosstat and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), relevant analytical and expert materials, as well as intermediate tables of resources and uses of the Russian economy. The theoretical foundation included scientific works by domestic and foreign authors on tourism infrastructure development, assessment methodology, scenario modeling, and forecasting of economic processes. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a methodological approach that integrates input-output analysis and scenario modeling, adapted to the modern conditions of Russian statistics, for assessing the multiplier effects of tourism on the regional economy. Using multipliers, the multiplicative effects of realizing the resource potential of the tourism industry were assessed, and ways to unlock this potential are proposed.