Two approaches to assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy (using the example of federal maternity capital)

Two approaches to assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy (using the example of federal maternity capital)

Автор: Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zolotareva O.A., Kuchmaeva O.V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Theoretical and methodological issues

Статья в выпуске: 6 т.17, 2024 года.

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Recently, attention to assessing the effectiveness of measures aimed at promoting birth rate has been increasing. Among these measures, federal maternal (family) capital is, doubtless, the most significant one; thus, it is necessary to develop methodological approaches so as to assess the impact of specific demographic policy measures, in particular maternity capital, on birth rate dynamics. The aim of the study is to design a methodology for evaluating and measuring the effectiveness of federal maternity capital based on official statistics. The article presents two approaches to the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of federal maternal (family) capital: the first is based on current accounting data, the second is based on census and micro-census data. Within the framework of the first approach, we consider it necessary to apply age-related birth rates for second births in real generations of women, that is, attributed to generations rather than calendar years. The second approach is based on the information about reproductive intentions. In accordance with this information, data on the average expected number of children, according to the 2015 micro-census, and the average number of children born according to the results of the 2020 census are compared. The proposed methodology helps to obtain estimates of the effectiveness of demographic policy measures, taking into account their target orientation (for example, an increase in the birth rate of a certain order or in women of certain age groups). The approbation of the proposed approaches on the example of assessing the effectiveness of maternity capital indicates the expediency of their application. Scientific novelty of our research consists in the convergence of the two approaches in order to measure the effectiveness of federal maternity capital, and in the methodology for using more detailed birth rate indicators in assessing demographic policy measures. The approbation of the approaches has not only analytical capabilities, allowing us to study birth rate in real generations of women according to the order of births and characterize reproductive attitudes; it also substantiates the conclusions about the effectiveness of federal maternity capital.

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Federal maternity capital, birth rate, second births, “timing” shifts, effectiveness of measures

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147247150

IDR: 147247150   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.6.96.4

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