Unorthodox indicators of the economy

The human factor is the core of the interrelations system between the economy and a social sphere of the society. Economic sociology studies economic relations, so its object is the economy viewed as a social process. [2]

The nature of people’s activity in the economy depends on their social attributes both in economic and in other spheres of social life (politics, law, culture, ideology) as well as on the position they occupy in these areas.

This work considers the model of economic behaviour as a result of the synthesis of various disciplines (economic psychology, sociology of work, control theory, etc.). Special attention is paid to an economic thinking.

The subject of social sciences study is human behaviour. In a broad sense we can say that all the content of economic science consists of a of human behaviour description. Scientific approach to the description and prediction of human behaviour requires generalizations from social sciences. In practice this is manifested in the use of certain behavioural hypothesis, implying a simplified representation of human nature. [1]

However, there is not a single “classic” determination of the human model. The same phenomenon of human behaviour can be examined with the use of different methods. Economic psychology analyzes the economic behaviour of the people -customers, taxpayers, employers - with the help of psychological science instruments. On the other hand, the psychological or behavioural economic theory (behavioural economics) uses individual psychological categories (such as the level of ambition, cognitive dissonance, etc.) in the framework of the economic models. It’s hard for the lay person to wrap one’s brain around the rise or fall of GDP, new residential sales, money supply, and other traditional economic indicators. [2]

Amid this somewhat ambiguous outlook, it’s only natural to yearn for more positive signs, and even to seek them among some less traditional economic metrics. And as it happens, our research turned to several areas – including entertainment, recreation and food service.

The signs are everywhere. You know the economy is struggling big time when your clothing is old, the armed forces don’t need recruits, your rich neighbors are clipping coupons, and your waitress looks like Megan Fox. During recessions fewer babies are born and fewer babies are planned (44 percent of women said that they were going to put off having kids or have fewer kids because of the economy). That is, if you’re eating out of restaurants at all.

Below there is a list of the unorthodox ways to track where the economy is and where it's going.

Some economists have come to the conclusion, that the length of the skirt can reflect the quality of life. They say that women's skirt is a precursor to the economic future. “The longer the skirt, the closer to a crisis”, said American economist George Taylor. As an example, the peak of long skirts occurred in the 30-s years last century in the USA as of the time of the great depression. In 90-s when a lot of countries were experiencing times of inflation skirts just below the knee were popular. In a 2010 paper, two economists from the Erasmus School of Economics in the Netherlands showed that the skirt-stock correlation exists, albeit with a three-year lag time. Therefore, they predicted that the recent recession would mean long skirts "around 2011 and 2012." Maybe that explains the recent – if early – rage for floor-length maxi dresses in summer 2010 and 2011.

Men often begin to wear ties, thus trying to show their solvency to the weaker sex and serious attitude to work to the authorities. So, in 2007 in Britain after the news about large-scale dismissals, the volume of sales of ties doubled, as workers tried to show the employer that they came to work. One more index connected with men: when the economy is stable the sale of men’s underwear remains flat and strong. But when money is tight, sales drop pretty quickly as men tend to wear their skivvies more times before replacing them. After all, nobody (or not many people) sees your tightie whities or boxers. In 2009, men’s underwear sales are expected to be down for the first time in years. The Associated Press reported that men's undergarment sales were up more than 7 percent in 2011.[5]

In times of economic downturns sales of lipsticks grow sharply. Women’s desire to be attractive is expressed not at the expense of large-scale shopping, but due to the diversity in cosmetics. Sale of lipstick in a recession, which followed the September 11, doubled.

At the same time, when waitresses are more attractive, the economy is closer to the downfall. During the boom times physically attractive people can use their appearance for more high-paid job. Here’s the theory: when times are flush, attractive women in big cities have many opportunities to make money through marketing gigs, modeling, hosting parties, and such; when times are less than flush, those opportunities dry up, and then restaurateurs scoop them up to wait tables – and to attract diners who like being served by hot waitresses. [5] Generally, every region has its own index. In the Baltic States, for example, the level of the economy is measured by the index of prostitution - high prices for the services of fancy girls indicate that the country's economy is raising.

In Japan, for example, in times of economic growth, women tend more often to cut their hair and to care of their hair. During recessions they are more likely to go a few extra inches to save on the trip to the hairdresser. The Japanese magazine Nikkei confirms the real data, which show that women favored less than during the economic downturn of 1997.

In the United States it is accustomed to rely on advertising urging to enroll in Marines. The higher level of unemployment is, the shorter but more brutal promo is. Why? Because now the government can be picky and want to attract the toughest, most highly motivated recruits.

In Asia there is index of unfinished skyscrapers the number of which increases in difficult times. Another indicator is index of new headquarters’ damnation. When the head of a large company announces plans about building or moving to a new headquarters this means that very soon the shares of this company will be collapsed. The same happened with the American newspaper “The New York Times” and a social network “My Space”. [4]

In the UK the economic downturn is assessed according to the level of beer consumption in pubs. During crisis people more often drink at home. At the initial stage of the crisis the richest part of population also begins to economize - number of visitors to restaurants is decreasing, bills and consumption of alcohol in restaurants are reducing. From 2008 till 2010 employment in the beer industry fell by 12 per cent in the whole Europe.

One more indicator is connected with cars. The faster the sellers of cars reduce prices for their goods, the weaker the economy of the country is. There are no actual data about the rate of reduction of prices. However, in 2008, when Ford, GM and Chrysler had excess inventory, discounts soared astronomically.

The most dismal economic indicator is the growing number of road accidents with cyclists. And according to the Report of the British Ministry of Transport, the number of cyclists’ victims has increased by 12%. That means that we are waiting for another wave of crisis.

Summing it up, it should be said that indicators of the economy are appearing less from analysts and more from society. Today even experienced investors appeal to the people's intuition, because consumer tastes acquire the features of the crisis before it is announced about crisis officially.

The content of economic science consists of a description of human behaviour. The basis for the formation of economic behaviour is an economic way of thinking. An economic way of thinking is not founded on the perception of the actions and use of socio-economic laws, but on the economic practice, so it is full of socio-economic content. [1]

Therefore economic thinking is viewed as a form of manifestation of economic consciousness in a particular social situation. The behaviour of the members of a society is determined by the interaction of the various internal and external driving forces. For the economic theory human behaviour is a product of rational decisions, taken by the autonomous. And it is necessary to remember that a person can make mistakes, but they can only be random and not systematic. The task of sociology and economy today is to be attentive and identify the most significant relationships and interdependences.