A simplified algorithm to construct a probabilistic model to evaluate the level of risks involved in innovation projects

The paper presents an advanced scientific procedural apparatus for constructing a probabilistic model for evaluating the level of risks and practicability of implementing innovation projects to develop high-technology products that is based on fuzzy sets theory; also presented are results of numerical simulations and an algorithm for the software implementation of the proposed method. This paper presents a model for evaluating the level of risks by one criterion, which is then extended to cover the cases where risk levels are evaluated by two or more criteria. By innovation projects this paper means such projects which require scientific engineering and methodological support for their implementation, the use of new types of technology platforms and materials, and of critical technologies, as well as have long development periods and high risks of payback time.