Grain yield in the Central federal district regions in 2010-2021: time models and territorial features

In the formation of the domestic grain potential, the role of individual regions is not the same, since the territorial features of climatic and economic conditions predetermine significant differences in the conduction of the economic activity. It actualizes research aimed at the development of spatial models of grain yield of different climatic zones. A related task is to analyze the dynamics of yield over a sufficiently long period and develop models that adequately reflect the corresponding time series and, at the same time, take into account territorial features. However, the use of traditional methods of parametric statistics is limited only to special cases. More often in the field of agriculture, the researcher has short series of dynamics, which forces the use of simple trend and adaptive regression models that do not provide the required modeling accuracy. Earlier, using the example of statistical analysis of historical data on the dynamics of grain yields in the Orel region in the period 1960-2009, we identified patterns that are of a general nature and have a certain methodological significance. The purpose of this study is to solve the problem of constructing spatial and temporal models of grain yield in the regions of Central Russia by fairly simple means. As a result of the analysis of the empirical base of grain crop yields by regions of the Central Federal District in the period 2010-2021. It is revealed that the majority of time series can be approximated by hyperbolic models with pronounced yield limits, and the spatial model is reduced to a three-cluster structure with visual identification of clusters.