Probabilistic model in risk assessment of tourist and recreational activities

In today's world, the tourism industry is one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. However, like any other industry, it is not without risks. Risks in the tourism industry can be associated with various factors such as changes in climatic conditions, political instability, economic crises, etc. Therefore, risk assessment is a prerequisite for successful operation of tourist and recreational enterprises. As of today, the tourist services market is a complex and dynamic system where each enterprise engaged in tourist and recreational activities is faced with risks that may affect its functionality, financial condition and reputation. Risk assessment is an integral part of enterprise management, which allows identifying potential threats and developing measures to minimize them, and the risk itself can be defined as the possibility of loss or failure associated with the activities of the enterprise. Assessment of risk events allows an enterprise to identify potential risks and develop strategies to manage them. For each possible risk event, it is necessary to determine the possible consequences. To determine the assessment of risk events in the functioning of the enterprise of tourist and recreational activity, a probabilistic model can be used, which will allow to determine the probability of a certain risk event from a certain factor, which in turn can affect the functioning of enterprises of tourist and recreational activity. The use of probabilistic model in assessing the risk of enterprises of tourist and recreational activities allows to more accurately identify risks and develop effective measures for their management.