Stochastic estimations of mass characteristics of advanced power and propulsion systems for transport and transport & power-generating spacecraft

An approach to stochastic estimations of mass characteristics of advanced power and propulsion systems for transport and transport & power-generating spacecraft is proposed, which takes into account random factors impacting the design process. The approach is based on the method of expert evaluations involving statistical processing of the survey results. The use of a truncated normal distribution law for estimated masses of the power and propulsion systems of a given power level has been justified. Stochastic estimates of mass characteristics of single- and dual-mode thermionic space nuclear power systems for different power levels are presented. The evaluations are made on the basis of statistical analysis of the survey results from eight experts. Approximation dependences of minimum, maximum and most probable mass values of the space nuclear power systems on the design power are obtained.