Influence of fluctuations and changes in solar activity on the climate characteristics at high and middle latitudes

Statistical relationship between the short-period fluctuations in solar activity (SA) and the fluctuations in the near-surface air temperature (SAT) and the water temperature at the ocean surface (SST) is considered. The contribution of SA to the interannual and interdecadal changes of SAT and SST is assessed. Analysis of the variability of the SA and climate characteristics is made using the rank and quantile statistics as well as the methods of correlation and spectral analysis. It is shown that the enhanced temperature and the largest number of warm months in the northern hemisphere are mainly (up to 80 % of the total number of comparisons) observed in the years of the maximum short-period positive anomalies of total solar radiation. The correlation coefficient between the time series of the annual values of the geomagnetic aa-index and SAT/SST averaged globally and over the hemisphere is in the range of 0.5-0.6 with a time lag of temperature changes (relative to the aa-index) in the range of 3-14 yr. After the smoothing by the running 11-yr average, the correlation coefficients increase up to 0.87-0.89 with the 8-yr lag. The relationship obtained explains more than 50 (40) % of the SAT (SST) variability. Taking account of the time lag between SAT and SST relative to SA and a high correlation, we may conclude that the established relationship may describe a significant part of the SAT and SST variability.