Impact of migration on fertility: key hypotheses facing evidence from North Caucasus

The article deals with the relation between migration and fertility behavior. Hypotheses about this relation which have been put forward in current demographic research are assessed using data on migration of indigenous peoples of North Caucasus. High intensity of their migration within Russia makes their fertility trends important for social policy planning at the territories which are their migration targets. To study fertility of migrants originating from North Caucasus, the author offers a way of sample composition which takes into account ethnic diversity in fertility behavior. This method helps to avoid distortions which the ethnic diversity can cause in a comparison of fertility among migrants and residents of the sending territory. Using data of a survey carried out among migrating communities of one of the regions of North Caucasus, Dagestan, the author holds that fertility trends among migrants fit both the adaptation and socialization hypotheses. According to the former, migration to a territory with lower fertility results in reduction of fertility among the migrants. In accordance with the latter, women who have grown up in the sending territory have higher number of children whether or not they migrate afterwards. In the theoretical perspective, these findings show that the two hypotheses may be confirmed simultaneously in the same community of migrants. The question is discussed whether social contrasts between migrants and those remaining at the sending territory can account for lowering of fertility among migrants. Future fertility trends among migrants from North Caucasus are predicted on the basis of the results of the study.