Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marriage and divorce in Russia

The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection has had a significant impact on demographic processes in Russia, in particular, on the dynamics of marriage and divorce. In 2020 the indicators reached the lowest values since the beginning of the 21st century. Meanwhile, quarantines and “lockdowns” affected marriage more strongly than divorce. Analysis of monthly crude marriage and divorce rates showed that after the “acute phases” of restrictions, when there was a sharp decline in indicators, in the periods of reduction of the quarantine measures, a “compensatory effect” was observed: both the number of registered marriages and divorces increased. However, in the case of divorces, the “compensatory” effect appeared immediately after the lifting of restrictions and persisted throughout the pandemic. In the case of marriages, “restraint” in matrimonial behaviour was observed for almost a year, and the “effect of delayed marriages” manifested itself only in 2021. At the same time, the different rate of dynamics of marriage and divorce led to the fact that the ratio of marriages and divorces in the country exceeded a record 100:70, respectively. There is a regional differentiation in marriage and divorce rates. The study showed that the matrimonial behaviour of the population in different subjects became more similar during the acute phase of the pandemic (in 2020), and differences increased in marriage rates during the period with milder restrictions (in 2021), while they decreased even more in divorce rates. There were RF subjects in which the number of divorces not only equalled the number of marriages (for example, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug in 2020), but also exceeded it during the pandemic period (in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia in 2021). This situation causes particular concern, as it affects the marriage structure of population and, as a result, may affect the dynamics of reproduction. Thus, unfavourable external factors can have a strong impact on marriage and divorce, thereby creating risks for the demographic development of the country. Conversely, a stable socio-economic, political and epidemiological situation will allow demographic processes to develop in a positive way and become the basis for achieving the goals of the socio-demographic policy of the State.