Impact of market reforms on the agricultural sector development and food self-sufficiency in the Northern region

The successful development of Northern and Arctic areas depends on sustainable functioning of the agricultural sector. Agriculture and fishing agriculture is a way of life of the indigenous population. The article discusses the state of agriculture and food self-sufficiency in the Komi Republic in the years of relatively stable development (1960-1980) and in the conditions of market reforms. It analyzes production and consumption of food and shows a positive effect of modernization processes on the agricultural sector in the pre-reform period. It studies market transformation of the agrarian economy, accompanied in the 1990s by the sharp decline in agricultural production, degradation of productive capacity, rural demography, rural infrastructure, decrease in living standard of farmers, and disparity of prices on agricultural and industrial products. The paper discloses trends in food self-sufficiency of the northern region in 1980-2013 and reveals reasons for the decrease in its level in the period of market reforms. It considers possible scenarios to develop the agrarian sector and food self-sufficiency. To predict the agriculture development the author identifies strong and weak sides, opportunities and threats by means of SWOT-analysis. The article proposes 3 scenarios: inertial (pessimistic), baseline and optimistic. It finds out the most reasonable optimistic development scenario based on innovative modernization for the Komi Republic. The study results can be used to adjust the current State program of agricultural development and elaborate the strategy of the agro-food sector of the region.