The impact of population aging on economic indicators using the example of the Kaliningrad region

Steady changes in the age structure of the population, accompanied by «population aging», are a generally recognized fact, forcing us to take into account their impact on economic indicators, on economic growth at both regional national levels. The article evaluates such economic indicators as capital ratio, actual investments, and necessary investments. The researchers were particularly interested in the dynamics of changes in the age structure of the population of the Kaliningrad region. The indicator of the dynamic coefficient of aging (DCA) is used, which allows us to quantify the influence of two age groups (65+ and 0-14) on the process of "population aging". All indicators are calculated at the level of the national economy of the Russian Federation and at the regional level of the Kaliningrad region, and indicators are compared. A modified Solow-Swan model is used to assess the impact of "population aging" on economic growth in the Kaliningrad region. The discrepancy between the graphs of the functions of necessary and actual investments, taking into account the DCA and without it, allows us to assess this effect. The use of the model makes it possible to draw advisory conclusions about the required volumes of investments in the economy of the Kaliningrad region. The analysis of the dynamics of the capital ratio per capita complements the picture of the insufficiency (sufficiency) of investments for economic growth. The calculations of capital per capita in the Kaliningrad region for the most part deviate from the equilibrium value, and an increase in the capital factor does not compensate for the shortage of labor resulting from the "population aging", whereas the reverse trend is observed in the Russian Federation.