The impact of structural changes in the Russian economy on the relation-ship between the labour market and price growth

Over the past two decades, the Russian economy has experienced a number of shocks, including significant changes in unemployment and wages. Since the labour market is linked to inflationary processes, it is a significant factor in making decisions on monetary policy. Therefore, it is important to understand how these relationships change as a result of structural changes. The article analyzes the dynamics of price indices, unemployment, and wages, and studies the relationships between them in different periods of time. The hypothesis of the study is that during periods of economic structural changes, the relationship between labour market indicators and inflation changed. The purpose of the study is to diagnose the impact of structural changes in Russian macroeconomic processes on the relationship between wages and unemployment with prices. The following statistical and econometric methods were used for the study: correlation analysis, autoregressive and moving average models, autoregressive distributed lag models, state space models, Bayesian vector autoregression with time-varying coefficients. The study revealed that during structural changes in the economy, the degree of relationship between unemployment and inflation increases compared to periods without negative shocks and stable growth. At the same time, as a result of the structural shift that occurred in 2015, the significance of wages as an inflation factor decreased, and the relationship became inverse with a lag of up to 4 quarters. The results obtained can be used to make decisions on monetary policy.