Selection of the observation interval for criminological interval forecasting

Introduction. The article notes that well-known studies do not provide unambiguous guidance on the choice of an observation interval for interval forecasting, limiting themselves to a general recommendation to take the length of the forecasting period, i.e., the period of removal of the predicted level in time from the end of the trend calculation base to no more than a third of the duration of the observation interval. The article examines the significance of the influence of the observation interval on the prediction error and the possibility of improving the accuracy of interval forecasting by selecting the optimal value of the observation interval.