The Importance of Research on Reproductive Intentions for Fertility Forecasting

In the context of depopulation and demographic aging, the importance of forecasting population dynamics is increasing. Due to the high behavioral determinism of fertility, special attention should be paid to reproductive intentions, since they play an essential role in shaping birth rate, which in turn determines population reproduction by more than 90%. Research on reproductive behavior is carried out at both the federal and regional levels, which indicates that the array of data on reproductive intentions and their implementation has been accumulated. The aim of the work is to assess the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions in forecasting fertility. Based on the data from a reproductive plans survey carried out by Rosstat, we assess the prospects for using the empirical indicator "expected number of children", modifying it to "expected number of more children" if the parents already have children, in comparison with the number of children born during the period in question in real generations of women born in 1970–1994. The findings of the research indicate a fairly high stability of the gap between the expected and actual number of children, which suggests the possibility of using information about reproductive intentions in order to predict fertility. We reveal that for the generations who completed fertility the mentioned difference was 0.19, for women of the last fifteen (out of 35) years of fertility – 0.3. For women under 35, the gap is more significant – 0.72. We substantiate the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions to predict births of various order, which is especially important when planning the total fertility rate and the proportion of large families. The results obtained expand methodological foundations for forecasting fertility, which is of practical importance for improving the effectiveness of family and demographic policy in Russia.