Analysis of the dynamics and trends of the Voronezh region GRP changes on the basis of the first order autoregressive model

The article considers the possibilities of using the first-order autoregressive model for analyzing the dynamics and forecasting of the main indicator of the level of development of the regional economy - gross regional product (GRP). The influence of the investment factor is described, the existing approaches to this problem are considered on the example of several publications of recent years. The specifics of the mutual influence of the gross regional product and investment volumes are analyzed, the importance of the long-term impact of investments on the dynamics of the region's economic indicators is noted. The properties of autoregressive models are described, the possibilities of using the first-order autoregressive model for analyzing the dynamics and forecasting of the gross regional product of the Voronezh region are considered, taking into account the factor of investment in fixed assets. Based on the statistical data for 2000-2016. autoregression models are constructed using the instrumental variables method to overcome the multicollinearity inherent in such models...