Analysis of adjustments to large-scale road construction activities

The article examines changes in the estimates of the main parameters of four large investment projects in road construction at various stages of design (program, pre-project, project, construction). Confirmed the estimated understatement and overstatement of demand early versus later. The author points out that the overestimation of demand when drawing up programs can be traced by indirect data, such as the commissioning time of facilities and the planned number of traffic lanes, which can significantly affect the estimated efficiency of measures, while in official documents (program adjustments, passports of investment projects) there are no results of the revision of the feasibility of the planned measures. Concludes that for determining the accuracy of estimates of costs and benefits of the considered investment decisions, the inclusion of an event in the construction program under conditions of significant uncertainty and based on overly optimistic estimates is much more important than justification based on research and design.