Analyzing Local and Global Dynamics of Transport Accessibility in an Agglomeration

The article analyzes the dynamics of transport accessibility in the Moscow agglomeration in 2020‒2025 using an original Index of Transport Accessibility (ITA) that integrates structural and operational components. The study relies on spatiotemporal data on the actual travel time by car between 61 cities in the Moscow Region and the agglomeration center, collected on an hourly basis. The dependence of unit travel time on the distance to the center is modeled using a logarithmic function. Based on this model, normalized deviations – which constitute the ITA values – are calculated. The article compares two approaches to analyzing the dynamics: a local approach, which involves annual model fitting, and a global approach, which uses a fixed baseline for comparison. It is shown that the local approach is better suited for identifying intra-system spatial differences, whereas the global approach allows for capturing temporal shifts at the level of the entire system. A phase analysis of the cities’ trajectories based on ITA values revealed that the transport structure of the agglomeration remained relatively stable between 2021 and 2023. By 2024, a systemic improvement in the operational component is observed, while the structural parameters maintain their inertia. The findings of the study indicate that a two-dimensional dynamic analysis can be effectively employed to monitor agglomeration processes and evaluate the effectiveness of transport policy.