Analysis and forecasting of the structure and dynamics of the number of graduates of Russian universities

The relevance of this study is determined by the need to improve the reliability of medium-term forecasts of the training of personnel with higher education, in order to enable well-founded planning of state-funded admission quotas and adjustments to the structure of specialist training under conditions of changing demand in the labor market. The aim of the work is to construct a forecast of the number and structure of graduates from Russian universities by 2030, disaggregated by level of education and broad field of study groups. The dynamics of enrollment and the number of graduates from Russian higher education institutions for the period 2016–2025 were analyzed based on official data from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation. An original mathematical model for forecasting the number of graduates is proposed. This model takes into account actual past enrollment figures and empirical graduation success rates (the ratio of graduates to enrollments with a fixed time lag). The model was applied to ten aggregated groups of specializations. The analysis revealed significant differentiation among the groups of specializations in terms of graduation success rates. The highest graduation efficiency was recorded for state-funded specialist programs in the “Health and Medical Sciences” group (97.6%), while the lowest was for tuition-fee specialist programs in the “Mathematics and Natural Sciences” group (32.7%). In 2025, the average success rate at the bachelor’s level was 75.8% among budget-funded places and 68.0% among non-budget-funded places; at the specialist’s level, this figure was 81.2 and 56.3%, respectively; and at the master’s level, it was 78.4 and 52.1%. In 2025, the total number of university graduates was 843 thousand people, while enrollment in 2020–2021 averaged 1,100 thousand people. According to the forecast, a steady increase in the number of graduates across all levels of education is expected by 2030, most pronounced at the bachelor’s level (up to 641.5 thousand people). The graduate structure is projected to show a sustained increase in the share of specialists in information technology and healthcare, alongside a reduction in the share of economists and lawyers. The theoretical contribution of the study consists in developing a medium-term forecasting methodology for university graduates using a balancing approach that accounts for differences in academic success. The practical relevance stems from the applicability of the projected structure and dynamics of graduate output to the allocation of publicly funded and tuition based places and to the synchronization of educational policy with labor market needs, thereby reducing the risks of both graduate oversupply in some specializations and shortages in others