Assessing the economic effects of tourism infrastructure development in Russia

Consistent development of the tourism sector in Russia requires expanding tourist supply and increasing the number of tourist infrastructure facilities, primarily accommodation facilities. A significant increase in tourist supply promotes the expansion of domestic consumer demand, which is a driver of the Russian economy, and spurs industrial production. Thus, the assessment of the economic effects of tourism infrastructure development, which is the aim of the work, is becoming relevant. Addressing this problem requires working out a methodological approach that allows us to conduct scenario modeling as a result of changes in demand for tourism products. Methodologically, the study uses input-output tables, including our own approach to determining the volume of domestic tourism in Russia. Information base is formed by data from Rosstat and statistics agencies of other countries, EMISS, VEB.RF, databases of intermediate tables of resources and use of the Russian economy. Theoretical basis includes research works on the development of the tourism infrastructure and methods of its assessment, scenario modeling and forecasting of the economy. Scientific novelty consists in improving the tools for using input-output tables to analyze and evaluate the economic effects resulting from the development of new tourism infrastructure projects. The importance of the tourism industry for the Russian economy is clarified, and the change in economic indicators (output of goods and services, number of employees, wage fund by industry) is calculated as a result of the forecast growth in demand for hotel sector services. The obtained values confirm the importance of an active policy on import substitution of tourism to promote positive economic dynamics and indicate the need to ensure that the number of workers in the industry is sufficient. At the same time, the implementation of planned indicators for the development of tourism in Russia requires addressing several problems in the ways that are proposed in the conclusion.