Assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on Russian labor market development scenarios: industry analysis
Автор: Faizullin R.V., Ototsky P.L., Goriacheva E.N., Pospelova E.A., Kharitonova E.S.
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Branch-wise economy
Статья в выпуске: 1 т.18, 2025 года.
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Artificial intelligence has become an essential element of technological progress, while generative artificial intelligence occupies a special place as an innovative general-purpose technology. Given the rapid development of this technology and its high potential for mass adoption in various economic sectors, it becomes important to assess the impact of this technology on the labor market. The modern Russian labor market is characterized by low unemployment, staff shortages, and intersectoral imbalances. An urgent scientific task is to model scenarios for the development of the labor market in the context of sectors, taking into account the influence of generative artificial intelligence. The aim of the work is to assess the potential impact of the mass use of generative artificial intelligence on the labor market, due to changes in labor efficiency in some professions and industries, based on the analysis of statistical and expert data and economic and mathematical modeling of possible scenarios for the development of the labor market. Economic sectors were divided into three groups depending on the rate of change in personnel needs, based on the analysis of the Beveridge curve, which shows the dependence of the level of needs on the unemployment rate. Using existing statistical data and expert assessments, we determine the degree of influence of generative artificial intelligence on labor efficiency in various industries. We put forward an approach that helps to obtain estimates of possible scenarios for the development of sectoral labor markets for the period up to 2030, based on official forecasts of ministries (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation) for the period up to 2026, their extrapolation, and superimposition of the impact of mass use of generative artificial intelligence (as a disturbing effect). The results obtained suggest that the severity of staff shortage issue in general can be partially reduced by using generative artificial intelligence; thus, we identified industries in which (a) it is possible to address the problem of staff shortage at the current level of needs, and (b) staff shortage will persist. Modeling the migration of professions and personnel between industries seems promising, because the expected effect of mass technology adoption will not only change the balance of labor resources, but also lead to the need to re-profile some of the personnel.
General-purpose technology, generative artificial intelligence, large language models, labor market, personnel shortage, scenario modeling
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147251339
IDR: 147251339 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2025.1.97.10
Текст научной статьи Assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on Russian labor market development scenarios: industry analysis
Automation and robotization processes are not something new to the modern economy, but automation capabilities are reaching a whole new level with the emergence of new technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI). These technologies make it possible to automate processes that were previously considered solely the prerogative of humans. For example, generative AI can be used to create content, not only in the form of text, but also pictures, video, and sound, which significantly expands the application horizons of automation. In the study, generative AI primarily refers to models that work with text, i.e., large language models. Generative AI has significant potential to improve performance in various fields by fundamentally changing some part of work processes and enhancing human capabilities. There are studies (Gambacorta et al., 2024) that have shown a 55% increase in programmers’ productivity through the use of generative AI. If there are algorithizable, often repetitive tasks in which the risk of error is not critical, generative models can do part of the work, including creating draft texts, codes or design, analyzing a large amount of information, speeding up work processes, for example, in accounting, marketing, HR, etc.
Currently, the Russian labor market is experiencing a personnel shortage. According to Rosstat, in July 2024, the unemployment rate is at a historic low of 2.4%. There is a need to analyze the existing trends in the labor market, develop labor market development scenarios and identify factors that can reduce the negative impact of staff shortage, including through generative AI.
On the one hand, low unemployment may indicate an approach to full employment, when the country’s labor resources are used to the maximum, but there is a risk of negative effects. In the absence of sufficient free labor resources in the labor market, the enterprises’ development may slow down. R.I. Kapeliushnikov states that “the Russian economy will have to operate for a long time in stressful conditions of acute shortage of labor resources, which threatens to become the main brake on its sustainable growth” (Kapeliushnikov, 2024). To overcome this situation, in an attempt to compensate for labor shortages, companies may increase the workload of existing employees or have to resort to wage increases as employers compete for a limited number of employees. This will obviously increase the costs associated with hiring, training and retaining employees. In general, wage increases not only lead to inflationary pressures, but also to higher inequality of working conditions, increasing social and economic inequality. There are risks that employers may have to hire less skilled or less productive workers just to fill vacancies, which can reduce overall productivity, and many employees may become less motivated to develop professionally, knowing that they can easily find a job even without upgrading their skills. Employees may also change jobs more frequently in search of better working conditions, higher wages, or better benefits, knowing that there is a labor shortage in the labor market.
The aim of the study is to assess the potential impact of generative artificial intelligence on the labor market in the context of economic sectors through changes in labor efficiency, based on data analysis and economic and mathematical modeling of possible scenarios of labor market development.
