Cyclic fluctuations in the tourism market: general trends and their reflection in the tourism sphere

Modern economic science increasingly turns to non-linear development models, with cyclicality holding a key place among them. The tourism sector, despite its specificities, is no exception and is subject to fluctuations of varying periodicity and amplitude. This study aims not merely to state the fact of cyclicality but to empirically identify it and correlate it with the position of countries in the global tourism system. The paper proves that the patterns of cyclical fluctuations in tourist flows differ significantly between groups of countries in the “core,” “semi-periphery,” and “periphery,” which is determined by the structural features of their economies and their role in the international division of labor. To achieve this goal, a set of modern mathematical methods is applied, including autocorrelation and spectral (Fourier) analysis, which allow for the identification of hidden patterns in dynamic data series. The results of the work confirm the presence of stable cycles and open up possibilities for developing more accurate forecasting models that consider the phase asynchrony of development in different regions.