Conceptual foundations for the revision of strategies for the development of tourist territories as a prerequisite for their adaptation to new realities

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In the context of the modern development of the national economy, the tourism sector faces many challenges, which creates the need for the formation of adaptive mechanisms that would allow it to quickly respond to changes in the external and internal environment. The revision of strategies for the development of tourist areas is becoming an important tool for creating flexible and sustainable models that can meet the requirements of the modern market and ensure the quality of life of the local population. The revision of strategies is important to take into account the high dynamics of changes in consumer preferences, namely, to transform standard approaches to the organization of the service provision process.

The article does not address the issues of developing strategies, but the expediency of their revision, which will make the process of strategic management of tourist territories more flexible and adaptive. If an understanding of the need for strategic planning and management of the tourist territory in the country has been formed, then an understanding of the need for a systematic review of the strategy portfolio based on changes has not yet been fully formed. As a result, the lack of timely revision of strategies leads to the fact that most tourism development programs in Russia do not achieve the set results.

The purpose of the study is to consider some aspects of the conceptual foundations of strategic planning in the management of the development of tourist territories, in the context of a special direction – the revision of strategies based on the theory of the life cycle for the tourism industry, cyclical development and seasonality for the territory.

Within the framework of the conducted research, the reliance is made on general scientific (systematic, generalization, synthesis, analysis, comparison, categorization) and special (statistical, logical-historical) methods that allow to reveal the studied problems. Also, data from the official websites of ministries and departments, Rosstat, and scientific publications on the studied issues were used as initial information.

Theory

The issues of strategic management of the tourist territory are not new, but the high dynamism of the development of economic systems, the presence of negative impact factors contribute to their relevance. The study and critical evaluation of scientific works by domestic and foreign authors allowed us to say that the management of strategies of a tourist territory is most often considered in relation to the life cycle of the tourism industry, the cyclicity and seasonality of the tourist territory [22].

For example, S. Gore and N. Borde in their work indicate that in order to manage the development strategy of the tourism industry, it is advisable to conduct research on the life cycle of a tourist territory. At the same time, they indicate a lack of research within this aspect [15]. K. Andrio-tis suggested that determining the stage of the life cycle at which a tourist area is located is important, since different stages require different strategies [8]. B. Todorovic noted that the analysis of individual phases of the life cycle of a tourist area is important for the development of measures to increase tourist demand and the sustainability of the destination [23]. S.M. Maral-baieva, N.V. Nikiforova argue that the strategy of a tourist brand should be based on the identification of the stages of the life cycle of a tourist territory [18]. S. Polyzos, D. Tsiotas, A. Kantlis described the importance of the life cycle of a tourist area in planning its development [20]. M. Ku-bickova, H. Li in their scientific work, highlighted that the correctness of the formation of a strategy for the development of a tourist territory depends on how accurately the stage of its life cycle is identified [17]. The same conclusions were reached in their research I.P. Albaladejo и M.P. Martínez-García [7].

On the other hand, D. Bojanic in his scientific article, back in 2005, considered the probability of dependence between the cycle of development of a tourist territory and the life cycle of the tourism industry [10]. A.Y. Alexandrova and V.E. Dombrovskaya in their article address the issue of the expediency of taking into account cyclicity in planning the development of the tourism sector, with the fixation of evaluation indicators [1]. Е. Kalygina proves the existence of a direct connection between the stage of the life cycle of a tourist territory and the life cycle of tourism industry enterprises [3]. The scientific literature has developed a fairly holistic system of approaches to the cyclomatic of economic systems, the most popular are Kondratiev long waves, Kuznetsov cycles, Kitchin, Juglar, etc. But, there is no universally recognized approach applicable to tourist areas. Although it is worth noting that back in 1982, Y.A. Vedenin in his monograph «Dynamics of territorial recreational systems» considered the recreational system as a set of cycles of actions.

Separately, we can single out a group of researchers who consider the management of strategies for the development of a tourist area in relation to seasonality, for example, G. Galloway [14], R. Butler [11], C.A. Barbu, A. Popa [9], R. Cannas [13], Р. Rizal, R. Asokan [21], etc.

In our opinion, the emphasis on only one of the categories – the life cycle, cyclicity or seasonality does not seem relevant in modern realities. Tourism has acquired the features of a complex system, therefore, all three categories in the conceptual framework of strategic management of the tourist territory should be analyzed and taken into account, both at the stage of forming a portfolio of strategies and its subsequent revisions.

The results of the study

The study showed that the management and revision of strategies should be based on the definition of the stage of the life cycle of the tourism industry in each individual territory, the allocation of the stage of the development cycle of the territory itself and seasonality. At the same time, a «tourist territory» means a physical space (a municipality or a group of Municipalities), which is characterized by the presence of a common tourist produc t1. In other words, it can be a city, a rural district, or even an inner-city territory.

First of all, when selecting a portfolio of strategies, it is worth conducting a study on the current stage of the life cycle of the tourism industry of the territory. The research is traditionally based on the model of R. Butler, who identified 5 main stages of the life cycle of a tourist territory – exploration, involvement, development, consolidation, stagnation (prolonged stagnation, rejuvenation, decline) [2]. As part of the research was formulated the author's vision of the life cycle of the tourism industry and was given a description of the main characteristics of its stages (Fig. 1).

It should be noted that the revision of the development strategy is advisable at the maturity stage, since at this stage of the life cycle the most favorable time for innovation, technological updates, expansion of the range of tourist services, etc. At this stage, it is easy to return to the stages of development and growth [16].

As the main indicator characterizing the transition from one stage to another, R. Butler has established the percentage of tourists arriving and the ratio of local residents to tourists [12]. In our opinion, this indicator currently cannot be the only determining stage of the life cycle of a tourist territory, since, as noted earlier, now the tourist territory is a more complex system than before. We consider it advisable to make additional accounting – the number of travel companies, accommodation facilities, catering enterprises, the volume of tourist products sold, investments and the level of income from tourism. For example, as shown in Figures 2–8 for the Stavropol Kray.

To form a trend for the period 2024–2026, the extrapolation method was applied in Figures 2–8, adjusted for statistical emissions (2020, the impact of COVID-19). Also, in order to track the indicators discussed above most accurately, it is possible to build dynamics series that take into account indicators over several decades, for example, using the ARIMA program. But the trend and seasonality can be detected on rows of relatively short length, using simple calculations. For example, extrapolation showed a trend towards a decline in the number of catering enterprises in the Stavropol Kray (Fig. 6).

ЖУРНАЛ

Study	Development	Growth	Maturity	Recession	Decline
- identification of	- low growth	- intensive adver-	- tourism is the	- clear subsidence	- failure in all
the current posi-	dynamics of the	tising campaign;	main source of the	in all development	indicators of
tion of the tourist	tourist flow;	- steady growth	territory's budget	indicators;	the tourism
area;	- a tourism deve-	of the tourist	formation;	- reduction of fi-	sector;
- recording of cur-	lopment program	flow;	- the tourist product	nancing and in-	- lack of inte-
rent assessment	has been formed	- increasing the	is standardized;	vestments in the	rest in visiting
results;	with the partici-	geography of vi-	- the indicators	1                                                           1 industry;	tourists;
- formation of the	pation of local	sitors;	continue to grow,	- a decrease in the	- withdrawal
foundations and	authorities;	- construction of	but the growth rate	tourist flow, but it	of foreign and
basic directions of	- increasing the number of repre-	new enterprises;	is slowly starting to decrease;	has not yet	large local
the formation of	sentatives of the	- the arrival of in-	- there may be an	reached a histori-	companies
the tourism indus-	business environ	vestors and large	obsolescence of	cal minimum;	from the mar-
try;	ment;	tourist opera-	some tourist offer;	- obsolescence of	ket;
- determining the	- the growing in-	tors;	- territory marketing	the range of ser-	- reducing the
feasibility of de-	terest of local	- development of	is not so active;	vices offered, but	tourist flow
veloping the tour-	residents in the	related infra-	- travel brands are	their prices are	to a historical
ism industry;	industry;	structure;	recognized, maybe	not falling;	minimum.
- a relatively small	- the main tourist	- formation of lo-	even on a global	- falling interest in
number of enter-	flow of their bor-	cal travel brands;	level;	the industry from
prises in the tou-	der territories;	- formation of a	- reorientation of	the public sector;
rism industry;	- indicators of	new regulatory	the entire economic	- a drop in sales of
- the absence or	the tourism in-	framework;	system of the re-	a tourist product;
minimum amount	dustry show an	- the cost of tou-	gion to tourism;	- reducing the
of investment in	unstable trend;	rist services is in-	- the price of a va-	number of special-
tourism.	- aggressive mar-	creasing.	cation is very high,	ized enterprises.
	keting of the ter-		maybe even it is	1                                                           1
	ritory, branding.	1 1	not available to	1                                                           1 1                                                  1
	1	1	residents.	1                                                  1

Fig. 1 – The life cycle of a tourist area with a description of the main characteristics of its stages [6]

2 Federal State Statistics Service. (2023). URL: (Accessed on August 11, 2024).

96752 97343

120469 ■

100549104756 и I

20080 25156

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fig. 3 – The number of Russian tourists sent on tours by travel companies within the territory of Russia in 2005-2023, people 2

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Fig. 4 – The number of Russian tourists sent on tours by travel companies abroad in 2005–2023, people 2

Fig. 5 – The number of collective accommodation facilities in the Stavropol Kray in 2004–2023, pcs. 2

. 6—

–

.

Fig. 7 – The number of tourist packages sold to the population of the Stavropol Kray in 2010–2021, pcs.2

In parallel with identifying the stage of the life cycle of the tourism industry, it is worth focusing on identifying the stage of the development cycle of the territory itself. This is important because in world history there are cases when, with the general decline of the tourist territory, the tourism industry was at the stage of recovery (Turkey, Thailand, Singapore, etc.), and vice versa (Japan, Russia, etc.). Each of the situations will require its own set of development strategies.

Do not confuse the cyclical development of the territory and the phenomenon of «seasonal-ity» (Fig. 8). The latter is strictly regular, while the cycle repeats at irregular intervals, and depends on the state of the internal and external environment in the region and the country [1].

The difference between seasonality, the life cycle of the tourism industry and the cyclical development of a tourist destination is also that in order to identify the former, only one indicator is enough – the dynamics of the tourist flow in the context of the year, in order to identify the latter, it is necessary to study a wider range of indicators – the volume of investments in the tourism industry, income from tourism, the number of enterprises involved in the tourism sector, the number of employees in the field , etc. The analysis of the selected indicators should be over a long period of time, this will allow us to make a more accurate conclusion.

Unfortunately, in the state programs for the development of tourist territories, cyclicity is tied to seasonality. For example, in the Strategy for the Development of Tourism in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035, seasonality is understood as «a steadily (regularly) recurring cycle of tourist activity characteristic of a tourist territory associated with changes in the conditions of stay of tourists and tourists »4.

One of the main directions in the revision of the strategy for the development of the tourist area is to determine the current model of its development. The conducted research made it possible to identify the most common development models (Fig. 9) [4].

Category		Description	Indicators
The life cycle of the tourism industry		1)    the period during which the tourism industry goes through certain stages of its development – study, development, growth, maturity, decline and decline; 2)    refers to predictable changes in the development of economic systems.	the volume of investments in the tourism industry, income from tourism, the number of enterprises involved in the tourism sector, the volume of tourist flow, the number of employees in the field, etc.
The cyclical nature of the development of the tourist area		1)    constantly recurring changes in business activity; 2)    more difficult to predict; 3)    cyclic oscillation occurs relative to the equilibrium position; 4)    occurs regardless of the current stage of development of the territory.
Seasonality		1)    it is observed systematically throughout the year; 2)    it is primarily related to the change of climatic conditions, which are the main factor in choosing this territory as a place of rest.	tourist flow by month

• Fig. 9    – The concept and indicators of measuring the life cycle of the tourism industry, cyclicity and seasonality of the tourist territory [1]

MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN TERRITORIES

Exporters of Raw materials	Technology Partners			Infrastructure-logistics centers
the model reflects the raw material specifics of economic development	provide technical support to the exporting territories of raw materials			an advantageous EGP allows such regions to occupy a niche of transport hubs
Territories-innovators	National republics			Hubs of power and resources
the territories are hosted and supported by R&D enterprises	with this status, regions can get more powers in some areas			territories with city-millionaire
National Recreation, Tourism and Ecology centers			Depressive territories
the tourism industry is the basis for the development of the territory			the territory does not have sufficient resources for restoration, and the reason may also be an incorrectly chosen development landmark

• Fig. 10    – Models of the development of Russian territories

• 6. Monitoring, control, revision of strategies based on changes in key indicators / factors in the external and internal environment / time period

Putting into practice the revision of strategies for the development of tourist territories, taking into account the above, would reduce the likelihood of errors and the number of incorrect management decisions. Also, it would minimize costs and save budget money. Figure 10 shows the sequence of actions to revise the portfolio of strategies of the tourist territory, taking into account the stages of the life cycle, cyclicity and seasonality.

It should be noted that it is advisable to consolidate the revision of the portfolio of strategies for the development of the tourist territory to a certain period of time, to the situation of identifying changes in the dynamics of one of the indicators discussed above, or factors of the internal and external environment (Fig. 11).

	-----►	1. Analysis of the current situation of the tourist territory (cyclicity and seasonality), identification of the stage of the life cycle of the tourism industry
	Establishing the current potential, competitiveness and efficiency of its use		Development of options / strategies for the development of the tourist area			Fixing of the used development strategies		Assessment of the territory's resources
		2. Ranking of strategic management areas by priority, linking with federal and regional programs
	Formation of goals, objectives, and methodologi-    Determination of expected results,     Communication with cal guidelines for working with strategy           priority criteria and indicators          the professional development, taking into account cyclicity           of tourism development              community
		3. Adapting the strategy portfolio with a systematic approach 4                                                                                        /
	Formulation of tourism development goals in a certain territory for management bodies, facilities and subjects of the tourism sector				Guarantee of coordination of actions of all authorities involved in the development of a strategy for the development of the tourist area		Fixing methodological guidelines for working with a portfolio of strategies
		4. Formation of an action plan in accordance with the established criteria							>

Approval of activities and initiatives		Fixing the master plan and responsible persons		Resource provision		Creation of a monitoring mechanism
5. Implementation of strategic management and strategy review activities

Formation of a marketplace (exchange of ideas) / digital platform

Project management in tourism

Risk management

Fig. 10 – A sequence of actions to review the strategy portfolio, taking into account the stages of the life cycle of the tourism industry, cyclicity and seasonality of the territory [19]

Conditions for reviewing the portfolio of strategies of the tourist territory

A certain period of time	Changes in the dynamics of indicators of the development of the tourist area	Changes in the factors of the internal and external environment of the tourist area
It is typical for territories with stable development dynamics. A specific review period is set, for example, once a year.	Constant monitoring of key indicators affecting the tourism potential of the region; first of all, the identification of negative dynamics in order to adjust to possible consequences in time and return to sustainable development. It is necessary for all tourist areas.	The analysis of factors affecting the tourist attractiveness of the region both from the internal environment (the state of infrastructure, personnel, quality, etc.) and the external environment (political situation, innovative trends, social trends, etc.). Assumes the allocation of negative manifestations for timely response.

Fig. 11 – Conditions for reviewing the portfolio of strategies of the tourist territory

Table 1 – Basic strategies for the development of the tourist area

Strategy

Description

The tourist area takes a vector for the development, growth and increase of income from the tourism industry. The implementation of this strategy requires large financial investments, support from representatives of the business environment, the implementation of a large number of industry projects, and the creation of the most favorable conditions for entrepreneurial and investment activities. This is a very complex process that requires careful planning and a lot of attention to innovation, digitalization and personalization of services.

The tourist area is taking a «pause» in the development of the tourism industry. The reason for applying the strategy can be both crisis manifestations in the market and an informed management decision. During the period of application of the strategy, only projects are implemented that are aimed at maintaining and preserving previously achieved results. It requires a deliberate approach and cannot be applied for more than 1 year.

The tourist area is being rebranded, trying to switch to new types of tourism. There is a gradual abandonment of support for the «classic» types of tourism for the region (most likely due to a change in tourist preferences). This does not mean that the «classic» types of tourism are being eliminated, it's just that over time they receive less and less support from the authorities. Differentiation and diversification strategies are actively used.

The portfolio of development strategies must necessarily be adapted to the natural and acquired advantages of the tourist area. Strategy is a kind of art of planning the development of a tourist area, taking into account long-term goals, trends and patterns [5]. The typology of strategies for the development of a tourist area is an insufficiently researched problem, most authors consider the strategy as a «document», and not as a strategy of behavior. Within the framework of this study, we proceed from the fact that the strategies for the development of tourist territories should be divided into two groups: basic (lay the main vector of development) and functional (help to adhere to the main vector of development). The development strategies of enterprises with the adaptation of their essence to the strategic management of tourist territories are taken as a basis. The results of the study are presented in the table 1.

It should be noted that within the framework of Figure 12, the most common functional strategies are recorded, the application of which is realistic within the framework of tourist territory management. The classification of functional strategies is debatable, and the study of this issue will be continued in subsequent studies.

The basic strategies are supported by a set of functional ones (Fig. 12).

Conclusion

The conducted research allowed the author to make recommendations on revising the portfolio of strategies for the development of tourist territories based on the analysis of the life cycle of the tourism industry, the development cycle and seasonality of the territory. The recommendation is justified by the fact that, firstly, modern realities are much more dynamic and require more detailed analysis, and secondly, the fact that the tourism industry has long moved into the category of complex systems requires consideration of more of its components. Separately, the author's vision of the stages of the life cycle of the tourism industry is given, with a description of their main characteristics. Also, in modern realities, it is proposed to expand the number of indicators for evaluation.

Within the framework of the article, an understanding has been formed of the need for an operational review of development strategies, either in relation to time, or in relation to external factors and changes in key development indicators, primarily of a negative nature. According to the author, the introduction of the requirement to review development strategies may lead to a more effective search for ways to develop tourist areas by selecting or developing the most appropriate strategies. After all, there is no single rule or universal development strategy. The portfolio

	Competition strategies
Leadership	Diversification	Working in a niche
	Financial strategies
Expansion	Stabilization	Recovery

Innovative strategies

Revolutionary

Catching up development

Iminnovations

Investment strategies

Strategy for creating new businesses and services

Strategy of non-productive diversification

Industrial diversification strategy

Exclusion strategy

Expansion strategy

	Marketing strategies
Concentration	Segmentation		Differentiation
	Pricing strategies
Following the competition Market penetration prices		High/Low prices		Price discrimination
		«Set»		Changing prices

Fig. 12 – Functional strategies for the development of tourist territories of strategies should be formed depending on the current features of the development of the tourist area. However, the transformation of the conceptual foundations of strategic management of tourist territories, over time, may lead to the formation of adaptive sets of strategies capable of responding to the challenges of the time, which ultimately will contribute to the successful development of the tourism industry in modern realities.

Strategy management should be carried out consciously, with a carefully developed plan for each subsequent stage of the life cycle, this will help take advantage of a rapidly changing market compared to competitors. As part of the revision process, the formation of a portfolio of strategies for the development of tourist territories should be aimed at preserving the results achieved and reviving traditional segments, starting with sightseeing and ending with business trips, as well as the active development of new types of tourism and related services. The ultimate goal of strategic management of the tourist area should be the creation of an innovative tourist experience, which will position it as a unique destination.