Delay Computation Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

The paper presents practical application of fuzzy sets and system theory in predicting delay, with reasonable accuracy, a wide range of factors pertaining to construction projects. In this paper we shall use fuzzy logic to predict delays on account of Delayed supplies and Labor shortage. It is observed that the project scheduling software use either deterministic method or probabilistic method for computation of schedule durations, delays, lags and other parameters. In other words, these methods use only quantitative inputs leaving-out the qualitative aspects associated with individual activity of work. The qualitative aspect viz., the expertise of the mason or the lack of experience can have a significant impact on the assessed duration. Such qualitative aspects do not find adequate representation in the Project Scheduling software. A realistic project is considered for which a PERT chart has been prepared using showing all the major activities in reasonable detail. This project has been periodically updated until its completion. It is observed that some of the activities are delayed due to extraneous factors resulting in the overall delay of the project. The software has the capability to calculate the overall delay through CPM (Critical Path Method) when each of the activity-delays is reported. We shall now demonstrate that by using fuzzy logic, these delays could have been predicted well in advance.