Differentiation of Demographic Potential in the Regions of Russia: Mathematical and Statistical Analysis

Negative trends in the population dynamics of Russia actualize research and assessments of the demographic potential of its regions. The aim of this study is to develop and test a methodological tool for assessing the level of demographic potential in the regions of Russia, which allows identifying typological groups of Russian territories by the level of this potential. The study was conducted using official data on the levels of demographic indicators (birth and mortality rates, migration growth, share of the working-age population, life expectancy) in the regions of Russia for 2023. Agglomerative clustering methods were used. The analysis identified five types of re-gions with unique demographic profiles corresponding to different levels of demographic potential. A calculation method is proposed and an integral index is calculated that characterizes the level of demographic potential of a region. The results are visualized in the form of a cartogram reflecting the spatial distribution of demographic po-tential. Threshold values for categorizing regions are determined, which allows developing demographic policy measures taking into account the specifics of the clusters. The obtained results have methodological and practical significance, offering regional authorities a tool for monitoring and managing demographic processes.