Долговременные факторы экономического развития Алтайского края в условиях пандемии

Instability of the dynamics in regional economy, as a rule, appears under the influence of factors of different nature. At the same time, amid the pandemic, changes in the current structure of the economy are possible, which in turn complicate the difficult task of analysis of regional economic growth. The aim of the study is to identify the factors of regional economic growth amid the pandemic, taking into account its unique features (using the example of Altai Krai). The article presents the results of the achievement of one of the tasks of this research, namely, identification of long-term factors in the development of the economy of the region amid the pandemic. The task was achieved bymeans of econometric methods with the justification and use of testing methods of time series for stationarity, nonlinearity, seasonality, structural breaks, Granger causality, cointegration relationship. The main results of the study at the stage of searching for long-term factors of economic growth became the conclusions about the cointegration relationship for the indicators of regional economy key sectors, including industry, trade and agriculture. Thus, the hypotheses about the long-term impact of the federal price index “Industry” on a similar regional index and on the index of the physical volume of agricultural products was confirmed. The given result indicates a serious dependence of the two leading industries of the regional economy on the external price environment. Further steps were proposed to simulate the social and economic development of the region with a predominance of industrial and agricultural industries. These results are expected to be used in the development and adjustment of regional strategic planning and forecasting documents, in particular, the forecast and strategy of social and economic development.