Eastern Yakutia: demographic processes in the post-Soviet period

Short characteristics of the region

Under East Yakutia authors of the article mean territorial community of Oimyakon, Tom-pon and Ust-Maisk municipal districts of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), which is emphasized as inter-republican socio-economic region since 1981 [1, p.26]. When defining economic regions in Russia, analysis of different region-forming factors are traditionally made the cornerstone. Leading of these factors is considered to be territorial public division of labour, which determines differentiation of particular region’s economy in different types of industrial activity as well as regionforming activity of primary development of particular branches of industry and agriculture (and favorable conditions), economic fixation to cities and other centers, communication lines, etc. It is evident, that other factors are also overviewed: natural resources and conditions, demographic, transport and other.

Socio-economic district occupies an area of 323,1 thousand square km. or 10,5% of the republic’s territory. Population to the beginning of 2013 — 30,9 thousand people. It borders in the North with Momsk and Verhoyansk regions, in the West with Kobiyask, Namsk, Tattinsk, Churap-chinsky and Amginsky regions, in the South with Aldansk region and in the East with the Khabarovsk Territory and the Magadan Region.

Pic. 1. East Yakutia at the map of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia)

The relief is everywhere mountain with deeply incut river valleys, except southern part of Tompon district, where relief of Prialdnsk plain is lowland. The development of productive forces of the region in 30-40s of the last century gave an impulse to presence of rich mineral raw material base, especially of gold. Here, in the Soviet period were founded rich deposits of placer and hard-rock gold mine, which became the base of gold mining industry — the leading industry of the region. Moreover, rich deposits of coal, stannum, complex ores, stibium, wolframite and other natural resources are situated in the region. According to geologists’ estimates, territory of the region is considered to be promising for finding of raw hydrocarbon deposits.

Economic-geographical position of the region (pic. 1) in reference to source of raw materials and energy, inhabited localities, marketing outlets and transport networks have an adverse impact on socio-economic development and is notable for disadvantaged position to the center of republic — city of Yakutsk. The region is situated rather far from the centre of republic and most of inhabited localities of the region are hardly accessible for their regional centers, which is considered to be constraining factor for successful development of industrial economy.

The East Yakutia itself by the similarity of regional problems hasn’t been formed yet in the single socio-economic complex, which is influenced by lack of regional center ready to tie up all the external environment to it. Moreover, Ust-Maisk district is not yet connected with two adjacent districts with the traffic road, there is no transport system of the region, urban skeleton hasn’t formed yet (there is no road, which connect the transport network of Ust-Maisk district with federal road «Kolyma»). The existed federal speedway «Kolyma» connects Handiga and Ust-Nera (regional centers), ventholes the region not only to the regional center — Yakutsk, but also to the Magadan region. Nowadays the republic road «Aldan» is being constructed with length over 310 km., which will connect the regional center of Handiga with working settlement Eldikan in Ust-Maisk district through the regional center Ust-Maya. After the construction of this route the region will attain the backbone of routes, which will connect all three administrative regions as unified whole. Nowadays East Yakutia is removed from not only the center of republic, but also from both Russian and world economic and financial centers. It has the northern position at the Asian continent as has neither direct yield of neighbor states nor economic connections with the Magadan region. The region is characterized with presence of rough natural-climate conditions for development of agriculture, underdevelopment of economic downstream, dependence of region’s economy from supplies of ready manufactured goods and materials for its preparation.

Main problems of the region, which cramp an active economic development of the region, are following.

• I.    Depopulation because of constrictive reproductivity (mortality is higher than birth rate, migration outflow of population). Demographic potential is practically over.

• II.    Significant depletion quality of mineral-raw basis of stream-gold because of many-years intensive processing. The basis demands for specification because its doesn’t answer

purposes of modern economics. Primary deposits of gold have begun to be exploited rather recently.

• III.    Transport inaccessibilityТ of many deposits and populated localities.

• IV.    Weak development of energetics and electricity supply network of administrative districts.

• V.    Necessity of great investments in development of rich naive metalliferous deposits, which are no in municipal districts. Development of the territory is possible only as the result of complex exploitation of natural resources by program methods based on stateprivate partnership with multibillion investments.

Prospects of socio-economic development of the region are connected with comprehensive solution of overviewed problems in demography, energetics, transport access and social development, the main of which is considered to be the problem of demography. It is well-known that population, labour resources in particular, is considered to be the source of social development and economic progress. That’s why in this article the main emphasis of the article is on statistic analysis of demographic processes, which happen in east socio-economic region in the Post-soviet period of development.

Analysis of the demographic situation

Formation of the East Yakutia population began in 30s of the last century form exploitation of aurigerous placer and coal deposits firstly on the territory of Ust-Maisk and later of other districts of the region, as well as active agricultural reclamation. With development of productive forces the demographic potential of the region also increased. The maximum population was by the end of the Soviet period of development. In population census of 1989 the population was 76,2 thousand people and was 7% of the whole population in Yakutia. Potential of the population increased mostly by means of migrants (who mostly came into gold mining industry, energetics and infrastructure branches). The population was concentrated in 14 urban-type settlements, where lived 68,5% of the whole population in the region and 50 rural settlements.

During post-perestroika east Yakutia is characterized with low estimates not only in socioeconomic development, but also in population density of particular regions and development of demographic processes.

Population density of each of region’s districts was 0,1 people per square km, which was lower than through the republic (0,3 people/km2). The modern demographic situation in the region was influenced by changes, which took place in economic and social life in the country as a whole, as well as in the Sakha republic (Yakutia). The most important tendency of the region’s demographic

Арктика и Север. 2014. № 17 development during post-perestroika period is considered to be reduction of the common population size (in 45,3 thousand people).

From the 90s, with dissolution of the Soviet Union and formation of new sovereign States on the territory of the former USSR, economic and social market reforms, which took place in the country, as well as difficulties with receiving of loans for gold-mining, recession of production level, persistent payment arrearages and instability of government contracts let to the fact, that the most of core companies of the region in rural settlements faced critical situation. This ultimately influenced mass exodus of population outwards the Yakutia as well as redistribution of the population domestically [2, p. 158].

To the beginning of 2013 the population sank to 30,9 thousand people, that means that 60% of pre-perestroika population left the region, which includes more than 61% of townsmen and more than one-fourth of all countrymen. Reduction of population through the urban area in absolute terms advanced the reduction of countryside population over 18,7 thousand people (table 1).

Table 1

Dynamics of east Yakutia population size during the period of 1989-2013, thousand people1

Years	whole population				urban population					countryside population
Oymy                                               Oymy Tompo   Ust-    East   Oymy  Tompo   Ust-    East           Tompo   Ust-     East akons                                                            akons nsk    Maisk  Yakutia  akonsk   nsk    maisk  Yakutia            nsk    maisk  Yakutia k                                                                                 k 1989     32,3     23     20,9     76,2    22,1    13,3     16,8    52,1     10,3      9,7      4,1      24,1 2002     14,7    15,3     11,6     41,6    10,9     9,2      8,7    28,8     3,8      6,2      2,8      12,8 2010     10,1    14,1     8,6     32,8      7      8,3      6,2     21,5     3,1      5,8      2,4      11,3 2013      9,3     13,7     7,9     30,9     6,3      8,1      5,7    20,1     2,9      5,6      2,2      10,8 Diffrence between etween   23,0    9,3     13,0     45,3     15,8     5,2     11,1    32,0     7,4      4,1      1,9      13,3 2013
В %	29	60	38	41	29	61	34	39	29		58	54	45

• ¹    Results of the all-Soviet population census January, 12, 1989. Statsbornik no 2. Yakutsk: Yakutsk statistics management, 1990, 81 p.; On short results of all-Russian population census of 2010 in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) (in October, 14, 2010). Yakutsk: TOFS GS in SR (Y), 2012, 44 p.; population size of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) to January, 1st, 2013. Statistics digest no 102/194. Yakutsk, TOFS GS SR (Y), 2013, 78 p.

Oymyakonsk district has mostly suffered from the migration outflow; nowadays here live less than one third of the population which inhabited this district in 1989, more than 70% of population has both left urban and countryside areas. 62% of post-perestroika population has left Ust-Maisk district, two third of which were citizens and more than half of countryside population. The Tompon district has left 40% of the population, mostly countryside area (more than 40% of all population live in the countryside); in the Ust-Maisk countryside area live just 28% of the population. It is worth noticing that in 1989 32% of the whole population of the region lived in the countryside, and to the beginning of 2013 — 35%.

Also such demographic estimates as birth rate, mortality and natural increase also influence the population census. During the years of perestroika the characteristic phenomenon in demographic processes was reduction of birth rate, increase of mortality and as the result low natural increase. The common result of population size was mainly influenced by migration outflow of the population, mostly of active and efficient population, who was ready to production and in the point of physical activity.

The indicative tendency of the whole post-Soviet development (1990—2010) for the region became reduction of the birth rate general coefficient for 4,5% (for republic — 2,6%), in the urban area (reduction 3,7%), in the countryside (5,9%). The biggest reduction was noticed in the countryside area of the Tomponsk district (10,1%), and the smallest in the Oymyakonsk district (less than 2,5%) (table 2), and as a whole the natural increase became negative, except countryside area.

Table 2

Common coefficients of birth rate, mortality and natural increase of population in east Yaku-tia,%o2

number of born for 1000 of population

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010
Common in republic	19,4	15	13	14,3	16,8
east Yakutia	17	11,5	10,7	10	12,5
urban population in the Sakha republic (Yakutia)	16,4	12,7	12,3	13,8	16,5
east Yakutia	15,4	10,8	10,3	9,4	11,7
countryside population	25,5	20	16,1	15,1	17,4
east Yakutia	20,1	13	11,9	11,5	14,2

Demographic annual of the Sakha republic (Yakutia). 2011: coll. works / Sakha (Yakutia), 2011, 198 p.

common in republic	number of dead for 1000 of population
	6,7	9,8	9,7	10,2	9,8
east Yakutia	5,6	9,9	11,2	11,9	14,3
urban population in the Sakha republic (Yakutia)	6	9	9	10	9,9
east Yakutia	4,7	10,4	11,9	12,4	15,2
countryside population	8	9,6	9,5	10,3	9,6
east Yakutia	7,8	8,7	10,1	11,4	12,4
		natural increase for 1000 of population
common in republic	12,7	5,5	4	4,1	7
east Yakutia	11,3	1,6	-0,6	-1,9	-1,8
urban population in the Sakha republic (Yakutia)	10,4	3,7	3,3	3,8	6,6
east Yakutia	10,7	0,4	-1,6	-3,0	-3,5
countryside population	17,5	10,4	6,6	4,8	7,8
east Yakutia	12,3	4,3	1,8	0,1	1,8

Here it is worth noticing that the level of birth rate is usually influenced by population makeup according to sex and age. Despite the high level of birth rate in the Yakutia countryside, birth rate in the region declines because of high outflow of youth from the countryside, as well as the fact that the population looks to quasi-plant families. Except these reasons, the level go birth rate was influenced by decline of economic and social standing. For reproduction it is considered to be a negative process which influence the reduction of the birth rate average level.

Mortality in the region, as well as in the republic, is increasing, during the years of perestroika the level has increased in comparison with 1990 to 2,6 times, just as in the republic to 1,5 times (table 2). In the urban area of the region the coefficient of mortality during the same period has increased to 3,3, times, and in the countryside area 0 to 1,6 times.

When overviewing this process in territorial section, increase of mortality in 2010 in comparison with 1990 is noticed in all the districts of the region. Coefficient of mortality in Ust-Maisk district was higher than 11,6%, including in the urban area — 13,1% and the countryside area — 6,8%.

Such high level of mortality is caused by not only changes in age and sex structure (aging of population takes place), but also by changes in socio-political sphere. Common coefficients of mortality in urban area of the region were much higher than in countryside. The highest coefficient of mortality was noticed in Ust-Maisk district in 2010 — 18,4%, which grew in comparison to 1990 over

• 3,5 times and has overshoe the coefficient of the republic (in 1,8 times) and of the region itself. The lower coefficient of mortality was characteristic for the territory of the Tomponsk district — 13%, which had the common coefficient of mortality since 1990 has increased 2,7 times. Indexes of common mortality coefficient in the countryside area in 1990 was 7,8%, and in 2010 — 12,4%, that means that during the twenty years the increase of the coefficient appeared 1,6 times. The common coefficient has mostly increased during these years in Ust-Maisk district, it has increased 1,8 times and constituted 15,5%, which is higher than the average in republic in 1,6 times. Increase of mortality level in the region during the post-Soviet period is connected with decline of socio-economic standing of families: lack of money, no food, appreciation of food, high unemployment, transport inaccessibility of regional centers to many settlements (table 3). In such a way, decline of common birth rate coefficients, and increase of mortality coefficients during the post-Soviet period led to degradation of common coefficient of natural increase. During the last decade balance of natural increase became negative in the region — depopulation is evident.

Table 3

Dynamics of mortality coefficients ordering in east Yakutia (in %o) ³

whole                     urban area                countryside area

	SR (Y)	east Yakutia	SR (Y)	east Yakutia	SR (Y)	east Yakutia
1990	6,7	5,6	6	4,7	8	7,8
1995	9,8	9,9	9	10,4	9,6	8,7
2000	9,7	11,2	9	11,9	9,5	10,1
2005	10,2	11,9	10	12,4	10,3	11,4
2010	9,8	14,3	9,9	15,2	9,6	12,4

Situation with infant mortality has improved in the dynamic during the post-Soviet period, it has fallen in the region during this period practically 5 times. Infant mortality of the population in east Yakutia during 1990—2000 was at lower level, than in the republic, and after 2000 has become equal to average indexes of the republic, but as a whole, in the urban and countryside areas of the region the tendency to decrease of the coefficient of infant mortality is synchronous to the processes in the republic in common.

Development and successful adoption of measures on reduction of population mortality is possible just upon conditions of its reasons knowledge. That.s why during development of programs in

Арктика и Север. 2014. № 17 preventative measures and reduction of illnesses, mortality and increase of average lifetime it is important to judge from analysis of the structure, level and dynamics of population mortality reasons.

In the whole republic as well as in republic’s regions among the main reasons of mortality in 2010 the first place was taken by circulatory diseases (mortality coefficient for 100000 people: republic — 469,5; Oymyakonsk district — 796,7 (1,7 times more than the average republic index); Tomponsk district — 636,3 and Ust-Maisk district — 770,3 people). Accident mortality, toxication and infractions is at the second place (195,4; 255,7; 155,5; 413,9 for 100000 of population correspondingly). By that, this index is higher in Ust-Maisk district over 2 times. Cancer mortality is at the third place (120,7; 78,7; 162,6; 184 for 100000 of population correspondingly) and reflects wide range of values: 2010 minimum of mortality coefficient was in Oymyakonsk district (less than the average republic 1,5 times), and maximum was in Ust-Maisk district (184 people), which is higher the average republic level 1,5 times. In the republic during the post-Soviet period the cancer mortality index was about 120 deaths among 100000 people, and the Ust-Maisk district during this period the tendency to situation decline is evident, number of deaths since 1990 (73,9 people) grew to 184 people (maximum, which speaks about either decline of ecological situation or wrong circumstances with decease prevention in the district’s health systems).

The formation of population, its size, birth rate and natural increase is mostly influenced by population matrimonial state. Judging statistics, during the post-Soviet period number of marriages and divorces has declined in common. The reasons could be both common reduction of region’s population and creation of families without marriage.

As a whole, the number of marriages is higher than the number of divorces, but in 2011 number of marriages in Oymyakonsk district dropped 2,5 times, of divorces — 2,6 times; in Tom-ponsk district — 2,2 times and divorces — 1,5 times; in Ust-Maisk — marriages 2,7 times and divorces 2,2 times correspondingly. During the last decade of the last century the situation has mostly declined; the reason for it is considered to be the beginning socio-economic crisis in the country, impoverishment, population wealth divide, grow of unemployment, great migration (to foreign countries as well as inside the republic), population and mostly youth turnaround speaking about marriages.

Migration has always played the most important role in population size of east Yakutia. During the Soviet period balance of migration was positive, together with high birth rate it gave positive natural increase and the population usually grew. Since perestroika balance of migration has practically become negative, significantly lower number of people came to the region. During 1991-2011 more than 33 thousand people came to the region, and more than 63 thousand people migrated. By that, the main migration outflow took place during the last decade of the last century. During this decade more than 70% of all the come population migrated. Since 2000 outflow of migrants became significantly lower, but number of arrived in the region population is lower, than those who migrate.

Nowadays the biggest populous district is considered to be Tomponsk district. According to national census in 2010 here lived 43% of the region’s population (more than 14 thousand people), in Oymyakonsk district — 31% (more than 10 thousand people) and in Ust-Maisk — 26% (more than 8 thousand people).

Till current times the region is considered to be the most urbanized territory of Yakutia. Share of urban population in all three districts in comparison with 1989 has lowered insignificantly, but it is still higher than through the whole republic (in urban area live 65% or 20,1 thousand people and in the countryside area — 35% or 10,8 thousand people.

Ust-Maisk district is considered to be the most population in the urban area. Urban population here is 72%, in Oymyakonsk district — 69% and in Tomponsk — 59%. Since 90s growth of urban population was more intensive than the countryside one. The reason for it can be considered to be influence of Russian national economy crisis in the 90s of the last century (in the region — reduction of industrial production, liquidation of core companies and major budget revenue generating enterprises, migration from the republic, crisis of gold mining industry). Countryside population in the region declines slower, what is connected with lower social mobility and domination of indigenous peoples in the countryside (the Yakuts, the Evenkis and the Evens), who prefer to deal with native activities: cattle breeding, horse herd farming and deer farming.

Analysis of population sex composition is important from the point of view of marriage and creation of population family structure. Over time (1989—2010) region’s population sex composition has changed a bit as a whole, its decline took place. When 1989 everywhere (in both urban and countryside areas) men population dominated over women one (89 women for 100 men), according to population census 2010 women population began to dominate over men in all the countryside of east Yakutia (102—105 women for 100 men). Domination of men population in the Soviet period is caused by domination of particular branch of industry — coal and gold-mining and connected with them, of auxiliary productions, where mostly men worked, and after beginning of perestroika because of reduction of working places in these branches migration of population happened, mostly of men population out of bounds of Yakutia.

In Russia in state statistics it is accepted to emphasize three main aging groups, who has different economic importance and to whom different demographic and socio-economic politics is ap- plied. In region’s population age composition changes also took place, which reflect demographic obsolescence (increase of proportion of population of old age). Such a situation happens because of reduction of birth and increase of life expectancy. According to international criteria population is considered to be old when number of people aging 65 years and older in the whole population is over 7%. At an average the world population age structure looks in such a way: share of children — 34%, adults — 58% and old — 8%. According to national census of 2010 in the Russian Federation number of children younger than 16 years old is 16,2%, of working age population — 61,6% and of retired persons (men over 60 and women over 55 years old) — 22,2%. That means that age structure of population in Russia refers to the first type of production and reflects aging of population. Nowadays in east Yakutia population structure of three age groups is following: children — 17,7%, adults — 67,8% and old — 14,5% (RPC of 2010), while as in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia): 23,2%, 64% and 12,6% correspondingly. East Yakutia population age structure is characterized with low percent of children and rather high percent of retired persons. Such an aging structure is worse than in the republic in average, but a little bit better than in the whole RF. Demographic aging of population has far-reaching consequences and tells about problems with birth rate and death of population, common increase of population size due to natural increase and deficit of labor resources.

By ethnic composition the base of population compose two nationalities: the Russians and the Yakuts. Their balance differs through regions but Russian population dominates (Ust-Maisk — 57%, Oymyakonsk — 52% and Tomponsk — 44%), though their proportion during the whole postSoviet period has evident tendency to reduction (in the Tomponsk district Russian population shortened 13%, Oymyakonsk — 11 and Ust-Maisk — 7%). Density of Ukrainian population decrease, who had rather big share (more than 10) among all the districts of the region; after breakup of the Soviet Union many of them went to their motherland, though share of them among the whole population is less than 6%. Since 1989 number of the Yakuts has increased in all the districts: in Oymyakonsk from 11 to 29%, in Tomponsk — from 22 to 38 and in Ust-Maisk from 7 to 9%4.Density of small indigoes peoples (the Evenkis and the Evens) has increased greatly. In Ust-Maisk number of the Evenkis has increased from 9 to 23%, in Oymyakonsk and Tomponsk districts number of the Evens became significant — 4 and 7% correspondingly. Buryats live in Oymyakonsk district (1%), in other districts they are not represented. The Tartars live in all the districts and

Арктика и Север. 2014. № 17 constitute 1% of the population. Other nationalities are from 5 to 6% from the density of the nationalities.

Population size is directly depends on such processes as birth rate, death and migration, which in their turn depend on not only socio-economic living conditions, but also on territories and districts for living (urban and countryside), because annually people who live in a definite territory have their own demographic behavior (unspoken historically formed social norms which determine for example age of marriage, preferences of number of children, moral values, attitude to lifes, etc.

Conclusion

Nowadays we can confirm that to the beginning of the second part of the 21st century districts of east Yakutia have practically lost their demographic potential. Human population of east Yakutia is in great crisis and can’t get out of it all alone. But, inspire of some negative processes, there are backgrounds for reconstruction of demographic potential. Optimism is connected with mega projects, who will be able to revive the potential. In 2007 the republic adopted the investment project for realization «Complex development of the Tomponsk metallurgical district», which provides involvement of gray volumes of labor resources for works on providing of industrial and infrastructure objects. The attracted for realization of the investment project labor force (local people as well as people from other regions who meet qualification requirements) must relive the demographic situation and lower the labor market tension. Together with great residential development (comfortable apartments, but not barracks and hostels) there is a hope that many non-resident specialists will stay in the Tomponsk district and will increase the demographic potential of east Yakutia.