Forecasting in the field of music education: goals, objectives, functions, «technological» approaches

The article reveals, as in other spheres of life, the contradiction in pedagogy appears in the form of dialectical unity and interaction of opposites, falling under the principle of the universal interconnection of objects and phenomena of the surrounding world. It is the contradiction that serves in pedagogy as a source of movement, development, renewal of the essential foundations, types and forms of the corresponding activity, while at the same time possessing a pronounced specificity.

There are also differences in assessments of a number of trends characteristic of Uzbek pedagogy in recent years and associated with the approval of the principles of humanization, democratization, liberalization, diversification of education, etc.

Such a scatter of judgments and opinions about what is happening is quite understandable - this always happens at critical stages in the development of society and its individual institutions. This, however, does not mean that one should abandon attempts to comprehend the realities of time, to identify objective laws that determine certain metamorphoses in modern pedagogy. Not understanding these patterns, not having defined the "diagnosis" of the current situation, not identifying cause-and-effect relationships and relationships, etc. it is hardly possible to regulate the processes currently taking place in pedagogy. It is impossible, in other words, to optimize these processes, to direct them in the right direction. And what is no less important, it is hardly possible to foresee the further development of events - even in the near future. And this is fraught with serious complications for pedagogy, because "predictive conclusions, supported by specific data, are extremely important to substantiate the need to transform the teaching and upbringing of young people, for specific decisions to further improve education" (IV Bestuzhev-Lada).

This work is devoted to the analysis of the processes that characterize the current state of affairs in domestic pedagogy. Treating the realities of today as a kind of prediction for the future (at least for the immediate future), the author sets as his main task to investigate the possible development of events in this area in the short and medium term, to identify the logic and priority directions of this development.

In the Uzbek scientific and pedagogical literature, the opinion is expressed that "even in the most solid prognostic developments devoted to global problems of the development of civilization in the XXI century (.), Educational forecasts are not paid practically any attention." (B.S. Gershunsky).

There is, of course, some exaggeration here. However, it must be admitted that the prognostic aspect in modern pedagogy is really poorly studied and requires special attention today. Both theory and practice of teaching need appropriate "contributions" and further development. Hence - the relevance of this work.

The research was carried out mainly on materials related to teaching music. In this regard, it is important to pay attention to the following: “art pedagogy” (which includes teaching music), for all its specificity, is an integral part (section) of general pedagogy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that many fundamentally important didactic positions and attitudes are refracted in it in a peculiar form. This is one side of the issue.

The necessary criteria and categorical apparatus can be worked out here only in the mainstream of multilateral, complex work; otherwise, they risk being more or less local, subject-specific, limited in their range of action. That is why the materials obtained in the context of musical pedagogical research should organically enter the mainstream of large-scale, transdisciplinary pedagogical research, acting as important structural components of the latter. The aforesaid defines the object, subject, tasks and tasks of this work.

Research object: the Uzbek system of musical upbringing and education in its dynamics, in its content and structural transformations, determined by the realities of time; in its internal relationships with other branches of pedagogical practice, more broadly - with the socio-cultural processes taking place in the modern Uzbek society.

The purpose of the study is to examine the current state of the Uzbek professional music education; identify the main trends and factors that determine the socio-cultural and psychological-pedagogical realities of the time; substantiate forecasts regarding the further development of Russian musical pedagogy.

• -    to analyze the evolution of doctrines and concepts that are important in the context of this work; to consider the genesis and historical and pedagogical prerequisites for the emergence of the main ideas that determine the current situation in the domestic system of musical education and training;

• -    to identify and systematize predictive approaches to musical educational processes in the short and medium term; substantiate the transdisciplinary status of forecasting in the field of education;

• -    to clarify the scientific and practical ideas about the advanced level of musical pedagogy; characterize and systematize the parameters that determine this level, analyze the ways and means of achieving it in teaching practice;

• -    to identify the contradictions that characterize the modern system of musical upbringing and education in Russia; consider various options for overcoming these contradictions, identifying the most promising of them; to develop specific methodological recommendations aimed at optimizing music lessons in professional educational institutions of the middle and higher level;

• -    check in the course of experimental work the main methodological and methodological provisions (guidelines, recommendations) developed in the course of this research.

Among the studies devoted to Uzbek pedagogy as of today, the works of A. Bodalev, V. Kraevsky, Vlednev, A. Novikov, N. Nikandrov, S. Smirnov, E. Shiyanov, etc. should be highlighted. , characteristic of the current teaching and educational and educational system, the changes taking place in it are analyzed, the factors influencing these changes in one way or another are identified, the role of pedagogy in the integral structure of modern human science is determined. The studies of psychologists who consider a complex set of problems directly related to the teaching and upbringing of modern youth (A. Asmolov, A. Derkach, E. Krupnik, E. Levanova, B. Sosnovsky, D. Feldstein, etc.). Similar or similar scientific research on the material of foreign pedagogy and psychology has been carried out in recent years by A. Dzhurinsky B. Wulfson, M. Klarin, Z. Malkova; these and other authors in many ways enriched the ideas of Uzbek specialists about the processes taking place in the world at the turn of the XX-XXI centuries.

Turning to pedagogical prognostics, it should be borne in mind that in almost all cases it is not absolute, but relative. From this point of view, predictions (futurological research of all kinds and varieties) fall under the same universal laws as scientific truths. To go from the particular to the general, from the singular to the integral and complex, never considering this or that position as the Absolute - this is the only correct, scientifically sound way in predictive practice.

At the same time, it is necessary to distinguish forecasts for such indicators as "short-term - medium-term - long-term". In other words, pedagogical predictions and predictions can be calculated for a relatively short period of time, or they can be longer in their chronological range. It should be noted in this regard that the shorter-term forecasts, the shorter the period of time that they cover, the higher the coefficient of their reliability and vice versa.

Pointing to the relative nature of the forecasts, to their incomplete "one hundred percent" reliability, it is necessary to take into account the fact that in a number of cases the forecasts are nevertheless amenable to verification. Thus, educational experiments in the field of teaching music, as well as other forms of experimental work (observations, pedagogical observations, polls, expert assessments, etc.) allow, in general, to judge the prospects and validity of many prognostic calculations and orientations.

"Экономика и социум" №12(91) 2021