Income population in the system of economic growth

In recent centuries, economic growth has emerged as the central problem of all economic systems. It should be noted that from a historical point of view this problem is a relatively new phenomenon. In the Middle Ages, due to low rates of development, economic growth could be traced only for a few hundred years, in the XIX century. this became possible already for decades, in the XXXXI centuries. it took several years to do this (the tendency to economic growth is usually considered to be progressive in the long run). Achieving high rates of economic development today is the most important goal of the state’s macroeconomic policy, since In the context of globalization of the world economy and the complication of economic interrelations, economic growth is becoming the most important factor in the country's success on the world stage.

The importance of economic growth is obvious: due to the increase in the productive capacity of the economy, it becomes possible to increase the wellbeing of the population. Economic growth increases the amount of public goods provided and enables society to consume more of them. The need for economic growth is due to the increase in population and, as a result, the multiplication of the needs of society, as well as the development and elevation of the human needs themselves.

In the scientific literature there is no single interpretation of the category of economic growth. In most cases, Western economists understand by economic growth an increase in the real output of the economy over time. In another interpretation, it is characterized as an increase in the production capacity of the economic system. Domestic economists today consider economic growth as a quantitative and qualitative improvement of the social product and the factors of its production.

The need for economic growth today is recognized by all, and the problem of ensuring its high rates is relevant for all economic systems. At the present stage of development, each state has its own specific model of economic growth, reflecting the combination of various factors that determined its formation. Today, most researchers emphasize the difference in the institutional development of states as the main reason for the diversity of economic processes in them. Economic growth in Russia also has its own specifics and its own characteristics. In the time period 1991-2016 several stages can be distinguished (Fig. 1). The transformational recession in our country has reached levels unprecedented for conditions of peaceful development: in 1998 (the year when the recession ended) GDP was only 60.5% compared to 1992 (the year when reforms began) and 55.8% relative to the value of 1989.

In 1992, our country's share in world GDP (at the current exchange rate) was 1.9% (9th place), then in 1998 only 0.9% (17th place). In the era of transformational transformations from the position of economic security, a decline in GDP of 50% is considered to be threshold, beyond which destruction becomes irreversible, i.e. The de-industrialization of the country begins. It should be noted that neither the First World War nor the Second World War caused such significant economic damage. S. Broadbury notes that from 1913 to 1917 Russian GDP fell by 30%. According to one of the most authoritative economic historians who study Russia, M. Harrison, Soviet GDP (at constant prices in 1937) fell by 34% during the years of the Second World War. Domestic experts believe that during the years of the First World War, Russia's GDP dropped by about 25%, and during the years of the Second World War - by 21%.

The rapid and deep decline of 1992-1998. replaced by rapid recovery economic growth (extensive in essence) in 1999-2008. Exports of oil and gas in terms that began in the 2000s. The growth of world prices for them allowed forming a significant part of the value of gross output and state budget revenues. This circumstance, in combination with the stabilization measures adopted by the state, made it possible to ensure 6.6% of the average annual growth rate. Russia's share in the global economy grew almost three times, reaching 2.6% in 2008 (9th place). However, by the end of the period under review, both economic growth and reforms had exhausted their reserves. The stage of recovery economic growth, based on the use of both internal reserves (previously created production facilities and previously trained labor force) and external (increase in prices for oil and other Russian export goods), was passed.

In 2008, a period of slowing economic growth and increasing volatility began in virtually the entire global economy. The world economy has entered a period of economic crisis, and the stagnation of 2008-2009. Became part of global processes. The decline in world production has led to a drop in energy demand and subsequently to a fall in their prices. At this time, the growth rate declined throughout the world, but Russia responded to the crisis with the biggest recession. In 2009, our country showed the most significant decline in GDP among the ten largest economies in the world (-7.8% of GDP). If in the pre-crisis period of 2000–2008, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 6.9%, after the crisis (2009–2013) they fell to 1.0%.

It should be noted that the rates of economic growth showed a steady downward trend, indicating the presence of structural problems and obstacles to further socio-economic development. The world has included a mechanism of inhibition, due to the exhaustion of the economic growth model that has been in effect since 1999. As V. Mau noted, “The deceleration began in the second half of 2012, when the Russian GDP surpassed the pre-crisis level (that is, the reduction reserves were exhausted), and export growth almost stopped”.