Awareness as a factor of success in choosing an educational trajectory

The paper is devoted to one of the possible arguments in favor of the fact that awareness is the main factor determining the success in choosing an educational trajectory. As such an argument, the authors consider the hypothesis that there is a feedback between the vocational education system, the labor market and the demand for education from prospective students (the hypothesis of an increase in demand for certain specialists as a result of a decrease in the quality of their training). To test this hypothesis, the technique of a simulation experiment in MS Excel is used, within which a small community of applicants entering different specialties over several cycles is modeled. The authors also simulate the situation in which some graduates are unfit for work in their professions and there is a shortage of personnel. A total of 10,000 observations were obtained, which confirmed the possibility of a significant proportion of disoriented applicants in the simulation model. The research results allow us to predict the growth in demand for certain specialties, stimulated by the low level of training of specialists. The high probability of occurrence of this phenomenon indicates the importance of its consideration in educational management.