Efficiency of strategic public administration: The state of Russian society following four years of the special military operation

The deep civilizational crisis that humanity is currently experiencing, the emergence of a new multipolar world order, and the challenges confronting Russia in this context underscore the urgent need to examine the strategic effectiveness of public administration. The authors emphasize the importance of a rigorous scholarly approach to understanding Russia’s role in the ongoing historical shift toward multipolarity, as well as in the wake of four years of the special military operation. To evaluate the effectiveness of strategic governance, the study employs the “evolutionary leap model” developed by E.V. Balatsky, which draws on the classical theories of historians, philosophers, and sociologists such as L. Gumilev, A. Schopenhauer, A. Toynbee, and E. Todd. The article also traces the evolution of Russian society and scrutinizes the caliber of the ruling elites as bearers of what Gumilev termed “passionarity energy” – the decisive factor determining whether the country will make an “evolutionary leap” to the next stage of historical development or face a crisis of statehood that directly threatens its very survival. The authors’ conclusions are grounded in data from nationwide and regional sociological surveys, official statistics, empirical evidence, and expert opinions, enabling a holistic assessment of public administration effectiveness, including its strategic dimensions: goal-setting, long-term consequences, and the motivations of decision-makers. Both the subjective evaluations and objective data presented in the article point to an acute need for improving the strategic effectiveness of governance. The President of Russia, who over the past quarter-century has consistently demonstrated strategic foresight, must now bring this quality to bear on the ruling elites, many of whose decisions continue to run counter to national interests and, as the study reveals, deepen the rift between society and the state. The study’s scholarly contribution lies in applying the “evolutionary leap model” to assess not only the effectiveness of strategic public administration but also the state of society and the quality of ruling elites in contemporary Russia.