On the issue of forecasting socio-economic development of a large city (the case of Vologda)

Rational management of city development requires the solution of many tasks, one of the most difficult among which is considered to be the formation of the forecast of socioeconomic development. The purpose of the research is to predict the indicators of socioeconomic development of a large city in medium term. The author has chosen Vologda municipality as the object of the analysis. The information base is the works of Russian and foreign scientists, as well as data from Rosstat and its territorial authority. The novelty of the research, which determines its contribution to the scientific development, consists in revealing the current patterns of socio-economic development processes of the studied territory and in justifying their state in medium term using modified autoregression models (Holt and ARIMA). After checking the predictive accuracy of these models, using the retroprediction procedure, we have found that the data calculated using the ARIMA model is more accurate. The paper analyzes the main indicators that characterize demographic development, labor market, goods and services, industrial production, social sphere, living standards and investment. According to the results of the analysis, the article identifies the problems hindering the municipality’s development. Primarily, it is the lack of sources of self-development (manufacturing industry stagnation, low growth rates of consumer sector), unsatisfactory demographic situation associated with migration outflow and low birth rates. As a result of testing the ARIMA model, the paper obtains forecast values of indicators of Vologda socio-economic development through to 2024. The materials of the work can be used by regional and municipal authorities, as well as be of practical interest to researchers dealing with this problem.