On the question of necessity and contingency in historical development

In this article, the author endeavors to address a pertinent and contentious question: “Does the history of humanity develop in a necessary or contingent manner?”. The researcher examines ideas within this thematic framework from the era of Antiquity to the present, classifying them through an interdisciplinary approach that employs comparative-historical methods, general scientific techniques, and specific historical examples. The analysis substantiates the existence of both historical necessities and contingencies. Rejecting extreme viewpoints - namely, rigid determinism and anti-historicism - the author concludes that historical necessities and contingencies coexist and are intricately intertwined. Contingencies may manifest not only as unpredictability but also as the outcome of multiple opposing necessities. As a prospect for further development of the topic, the author proposes analyzing the relationship between necessity and contingency in history through specific processes based on four criteria: naturalness, subjectivity, autonomy, and variability.