Short-term forecasting of tax income from the consolidated budget of the Republic of Buryatia

The article analyzes tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the Republic of Buryatia, reveals the features in the structure of tax revenues from 2013 to 2019. Based on the tax forms 1-NM, we have compiled the time series of tax revenue and analyzed them according to Box-Jenkins method. For the short-term forecasting of tax revenues of the consolidated regional budget we propose to use a model of autoregressive - integrated moving average process with preliminary transformation of the time series based on discrete differentiation. To verify the adequacy of this approach to assessing future revenues to the consolidated budget we used retrospective forecasting for 2019 and compared its results with the real values.