Macroeconomic determinants of competitive pressure on the credit market in Russia: an empirical study

This article aims to conduct an econometric assessment of the impact of individual macroeconomic variables on the dynamics of the index of herd behavior of commercial banks on the example of Russia. Based on the analysis of the data on the loan portfolio of commercial banks, the number of registered credit institutions in the Russian Federation, the number of Bank credit institutions with foreign participation in the capital, the dynamics of the refinancing rate and the key rate of the Bank of Russia, as well as the weighted average exchange rate of the ruble to the us dollar for the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2018, using the autoregressive model with distributed lags (ARDL), we established, that the elasticity of the loan portfolios of the sample banks is in co-integration with the explanatory variables.