Methodological problems in assessing Russia’s food security: Overcoming the “average metrics trap” and diagnosing vulnerabilities

The article focuses on the theoretical substantiation and verification of an optimized system of national food security indicators for the Russian Federation under escalating geo-economic and logistical risks. The aim of the study is to overcome the methodological bottlenecks of redundant regulatory lists of assessment indicators by constructing a concise analytical model for risk express-diagnostics. As a theoretical framework, the author developed a cyclical model of food security (the “matryoshka”) that describes the continuous transformation of the supply structure under the influence of changing consumption patterns. The empirical basis of the study comprises a statistical analysis of Rosstat data across population decile groups for the 2020–2024 period, applying Engel’s law and the decile expenditure ratio. Deep structural imbalances have been revealed between the macro-level of national self-sufficiency and the micro-level of economic food accessibility. It is proved that forced spending of more than 50% of the budget on food by the first decile group leads to a paradoxical qualitative deterioration of the diet due to the transition to cheap, high-calorie substitutes. A matrix grouping of the population by welfare level based on the share of food expenditures was developed and tested. It captured the polarization of society: the transition of the 10th group into the “wealthy society” category while the 1st group stagnates in the low-level zone. The critical role of agflation as a cross-cutting factor accelerating general inflation is substantiated. The necessity of establishing a Situational Analytical Center for Agflation Monitoring under the Government of the Russian Federation for preventive interagency modeling of commodity balances (Ministry of Agriculture, Federal Customs Service, Federal Antimonopoly Service, Bank of Russia) is demonstrated. The transition to a compact system of 3–5 key indicators for each dimension of food security (availability, accessibility, utilization, stability) will reduce the burden on state statistics bodies and overcome regulatory overload. The proposed optimized list of indicators ensures high responsiveness and precision of managerial decisions which is critically necessary for protecting the technological and financial sovereignty of the state.