Fuzzy regression method as a tool of sociological analysis of the dynamics of alcohol and drug addiction among children

The paper analyzes the dynamics of changes in the relative number of children on preventive registration related to the use of alcohol, narcotic and non-narcotic psychoactive substances, as well as the dynamics of morbidity rates among children with mental disorders caused by the use of these substances in Russia. The method of fuzzy linear regression is used as a tool for mathematical modeling and forecasting. Such a method is considered as an alternative to classical regression analysis in the study of short time series and the absence of assumptions about the type of distribution. Using this method, the authors found linear regression parameters for the dynamics of the relative number of children on preventive registration, as well as the relative morbidity of mental disorders associated with the use of psychoactive substances. The article concludes that, on the one hand, social policy has been successful, as it has resulted in a decrease in the number of children on preventive registration and, on the other hand, there is an increase in the number of mental disorders associated with the use of narcotic substances in recent years.