Model for predicting metabolic syndrome in patients with paranoid schizophrenia

The literature discusses the high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in patients with schizophrenia in comparison with its occurrence in individuals without mental illness. Objective: to develop a prognostic model of the risk of MS in patients with paranoid schizophrenia based on a complex of age and sex, clinical, psychopharmacotherapeutic, anthropometric and biochemical parameters. Material and Methods. According to a survey of 64 patients with paranoid schizophrenia who are treated at the Endogenous Disorders Department of Mental Health Research Institute of Tomsk National Research Medical Center, the risk of developing the metabolic syndrome is assessed using the method of logistic regression. The patients are divided into two groups depending on the presence / absence of MS according to the IDF criteria (International Diabetes Federation, 2005). MS is diagnosed in almost half (n = 31, 48.4%) of patients. Discussion. As a result of the study, a logistic regression equation is constructed to predict the likelihood of the risk of developing MS, which includes the following parameters: waist circumference, ratio of triglycerides to high density lipoproteins, and concentration of apolipoprotein C3. The proposed mathematical model has high sensitivity and specificity and can be used to predict the development of MS to prescribe the personalized therapy.