Model for predicting metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women

Objective: to develop an effective prognostic model for the development of metabolic syndrome (MS) in women during early postmenopause. Material and methods. The case — control study included 82 early postmenopausal women. Group 1 consisted of 35 women with MS, group 2–47 women without MS. The research methods included the collection of medical history in a specially designed form, analysis of medical information from outpatient records, anthropometry and laboratory studies, assessment of the severity of menopausal syndrome by a modified menopausal index (MMI). Results. In patients with MS, compared with the control group, index HOMA-IR (Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance), the visceral adiposity index and MMI were significantly higher (p<0.001, p<0.001 and p=0.003, respectively), while the levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (р=0.008) and prolactin (р=0.011) were lower. Using the method of multiple logistic regression, a screening model has been developed to assess the likelihood of MS in women, including 5 parameters: somatic comorbidity, visceral adiposity index, MMI, levels of folliclestimulating hormone and prolactin. The ROC curve was used to build the model. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.909; 95 % confidence interval 0.835–0.984 (sensitivity — 87.1 %, specificity — 78.6 %). Conclusion. A prognostic model of the development of metabolic syndrome in women during early postmenopause has been developed, which helps identify patients with increased cardiometabolic risk, which will allow timely initiation of personalized preventive and treatment measures.