A model for forecasting the rate of consumer price index (inflation): case study of the Russian Federation

Inflation is one of the key categories of economic theory. Its regulation helps solve various socio-economic problems; and its timely forecasting contributes to the optimal management of economic activities of economic entities. Quantitative assessments of inflation processes are widespread among the provisions of the theory of the time value of money. The correct and reliable estimations of future rates of change in prices of goods and services allow designers to accurately assess the sustainability of their projects, to determine the break-even point and find the optimal price of products, which will contribute to the maximization of profit. In addition, accurate forecasting of inflation rate helps reduce costs in the future, which rise especially during crisis phenomena in economic systems. The present article discusses basic theoretical principles of inflation from the standpoint of theoretical provisions of W. Phillips and proposes a mathematical model of multiple linear regression, which can be used to predict the rate of change in the price index for future periods...