Model of ecological and economic processes - an optimization approach

A serious scientific problem is estimation of the environmental effect of economic development and identification of patterns in interrelations between environmental and economic characteristics of ongoing processes. Models of the development impact of the economy on the global environment are considered in the paper, special functions pollution offered and optimization models are built. The main advantage of the proposed pollution functions, which integrate economic and environmental indices, is that they help investigate the dynamics of the environmental efficiency of investments, analyse the effect of changes in the structure of investments and the economy, and take account of the possibility of one factor compensating for another. The equations relating the parameters of the functions describing the economy as whole and individual sectors are received. The problem of optimizing the distribution of investments by destination (new construction, modernization and environmental investments) and by sector of the economy is considered. Relations between the parameters of special functions are obtained under which the minimum pollution achieved (optimality conditions for the allocation of resources). The method of predicting environmental and economic development is proposed, including the optimization scenarios. Analysis of changes in pollution is executed depending on the dynamics of the gross regional product (emissions of pollutants and wastewater discharge). Three sectors were allocated by the level of pollution in Karelia and these sectors have been investigated. Calculations of functions pollution by sector of Karelian economy of 1998-2011 was performed and the ratio of the real and the optimal allocation of resources in the period is studied. It was shown that the distribution of resources is only partially consistent with the optimal in the 2000s. Conducted test calculations confirm the possibility of using the proposed technique.