Моделирование производства возобновляемой электроэнергии в Азербайджане

Автор: Нифтиев И.М., Рустамли Э.Ф., Маммадли Р.М.

Журнал: Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз @volnc-esc

Статья в выпуске: 1 т.17, 2024 года.

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Азербайджан - богатая нефтью страна на Южном Кавказе, обладающая большим потенциалом для развития сектора возобновляемых источников энергии, на долю которого в настоящее время приходится лишь небольшая часть от общего объема производства энергии. Увеличение объемов выработки электроэнергии из возобновляемых источников приносит экономические и экологические выгоды: повышение энергетической безопасности, устойчивости и ресурсосбережения, децентрализованное производство электроэнергии, технологические инновации и смягчение последствий изменения климата. Несмотря на растущее число исследований, посвященных зеленой энергетике Азербайджана или энергетическому переходу, динамика относительно продолжительного производства электроэнергии из возобновляемых источников на душу населения в стране изучена не в полной мере. Более того, в большинстве исследований не учитывается роль технологических изменений и ключевых институциональных и политических переменных в энергетическом переходе. В нашей работе восполняется этот пробел, в ней применяется моделирование с помощью динамического обычного метода наименьших квадратов (DOLS) к годовым данным для выявления ключевых экономических, институциональных и политических детерминант в период с 1990 по 2021 год. Обнаружено, что экономические переменные, такие как цены на нефть, открытость торговли, выбросы CO2, присоединение к Киотскому протоколу и кризисные периоды, были положительно и статистически значимо связаны с производством электроэнергии из возобновляемых источников в Азербайджане. Однако институциональные переменные (например, эффективность государственного управления), ВВП на душу населения и потребление первичной энергии были отрицательно и статистически значимо связаны с производством возобновляемой электроэнергии. Полученные выводы могут послужить источником важной информации об увеличении объемов производства энергии из возобновляемых источников как в краткосрочной, так и в долгосрочной перспективе. Следовательно, работа представляет интерес для ученых, политиков и лиц, принимающих решения.

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Экономика азербайджана, производство электроэнергии, динамический метод наименьших квадратов, зеленая экономика, возобновляемые источники энергии

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147243373

IDR: 147243373 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.1.91.14

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