Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions in the context of sanctions pressure

The article investigates the problem of ensuring Russia’s economic security in the conditions of increasing sanctions pressure. In order to assess and analyze emerging risks, we propose a multifactorial model that considers the economic security of Russian regions as a complex multidimensional system influenced by various interrelated risk factors. We use a list of indicators for monitoring and assessing Russia’s economic security, approved by Presidential Decree 208, dated May 13, 2017. For the purpose of risk modeling, we establish two-level threshold values (“soft” and “hard”) of indicators based on expert assessment. The information base of the study includes data of the Federal State Statistics Service for Russia, as well as data in the context of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District by month for the period from January 2016 to March 2023. According to the calculation results, the aggravation of sanctions imposed by unfriendly countries has negatively affected the economic security of Russia as a whole and that of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District. Within the analyzed period, the risks created are significantly lower in comparison with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they tend to decrease. Regional analysis shows that the most significant risk factor is the condition of agriculture, which has been significantly affected by the quarantine and sanctions restrictions imposed. Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions on the basis of the proposed approach in dynamics will help to promptly assess the current situation and put forward management recommendations in a timely manner, when economic security is compromised.